Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 01/02/07

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...EDDY CIRCULATION ATTEMPTING TO SPIN-UP OFFSHORE. CLOUD MASS ASSOCIATED WITH EDDY CIRCULATION SEEMS VERY DISORGANIZED...BUT CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE GETTING SOME REENFORCEMENT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR EDDY FORMATION TO OCCUR THIS MORNING AS 850 MB FLOW AND HEIGHTS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SOUTH COAST.

FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. WITH WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT CURRENTLY...DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.

A LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEVELOPING TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE ALONG THE ELONGATED VORT MAX SHOULD BE THE MAIN WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SLIGHT CONCERN THAT MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING THIS SYSTEM AS VORT MAX APPEARS A TAD STRONGER THAN MODELS SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE STORM HAS VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND A DISORGANIZED 850 MB MIXING RATIOS.

OFFSHORE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. OFFSHORE EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS PAST COUPLE OF EVENT AS THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE LACKING. THERMAL GRADIENT AT BEST REACHES 5-6 DEGREES CELSIUS ON BOTH MODELS. 06Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE RELATIVE TO THE 00Z SOLUTIONS. WIND HIGHLIGHTS HAVE TABLED FOR THE CURRENT TIME TO ALLOW MODEL CONSISTENCY TO IMPROVE.

FLOW PATTERN ORIENTS MORE NORTHEASTERLY NEW YEARS DAY. BETTER THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPEAR TO SET UP MONDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENTS EXCEED 7 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THE 06Z GFS AND ARE BIT STRONGER ON THE NAM SOLUTIONS. 950 MB WINDS IN THE NAM ARE NEAR 50 KNOTS WITH A 40 KNOTS MAXIMUM AT 850 MB. GFS IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS NAM...BUT STILL HAS 30 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB.

WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR GOING INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND LESS MIXING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND LITTLE MIXING OCCURS. STORM SYSTEM STILL APPEARS ON TAP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A LARGE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS LACKING SOME...BUT SLIGHT WARMING IS OCCURRING...AND A GOOD BAND OF HIGHER 850 MB MIXING RATIOS IS PRESENT ON BOTH SOLUTIONS. A STRONG JET DIVES SOUTH OVER THE STATE...WITH BEST DYNAMICS OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL OF THIS WOULD BE GOOD FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION IF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WAS IN A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION. BUT AS WITH MOST SYSTEMS THIS FALL AND EARLY WINTER...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY. POPS WERE BUMPED UP SOME...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE CENTRAL COAST.

A STRONGER OFFSHORE EVENT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE SYSTEM. GOOD THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS FORM BEHIND THE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A 8 DEGREE CELSIUS THERMAL GRADIENT PRESENT ON 06Z SATURDAY. GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN SOME ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS COULD STILL REMAIN STRONG AS SOME ADDITIONAL REENFORCEMENT WITH VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTH MAY OCCUR. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE RETRACING SOME STEPS A BIT RELATIVE TO THE GFS. 00Z SOLUTIONS DEVELOPS A FLOW PATTERN WHICH COULD INDUCE EDDY DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CONSISTENCY...GOING THE ROUTE OF THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ACARS DOES NOT SHOW A MARINE LAYER BUT THE SATELLITE SHOWS ONE LURKING OFFSHORE IN A BROAD EDDY CIRCULATION THAT HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOME CLOUDS INTO KSBA. THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND ANY COASTAL TAF SITE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE VERY VARIABLE. THE CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KVNY OR KBUR. A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE LIFR CIGS AND VIS THIS MORNING.

CONFIDENCE PRETTY LOW THIS MORNING FOR KLAX. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IS JUST OFF THE WEST TIPS OF THE RUNWAYS. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MOVE IN AND OUT THROUGH THE MORNING. VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL AVIATION...ASR

...THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW YEAR WILL BE WET AND MILD...

.NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SCT TO BKN BANDS OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL SE DOWN THE UPSTREAM FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. OKX 12Z SOUNDING AND EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SUPPORT PREVIOUS FORECAST MAXES IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. &&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE...

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET...AT THE ONSET MAINLY FROM 10 PM UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COS. BECAUSE OF WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS INCLUDING GROUND TEMPS...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...

HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING...MAINLY FROM 7 AM UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY WHEN UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND WHERE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY...

AND STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH PLUS ACROSS LAND FROM EASTERN NYC EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT DURING NEW YEAR/S DAY.

ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRES SYS OVER NORTHEAST KS INTENSIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES NNE AND PASSES NE OF LAKE HURON DURING MONDAY. ITS` ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SSW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E PASSING E OF THE REGION BY EARLY MON NIGHT...SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN SHOWN BY THE LATEST GFS OPERATIONAL RUN.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES E OFF THE COAST THIS EVE...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PATTERN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR BY 10 PM...BEFORE AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT IS DURING THIS TIME...THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND. BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...ALL FCST MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STG LOW LVL S JET...50 TO 60 KT PLUS AT 925 MB AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD AID IN LOW LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SLOWING FRONT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME HVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE THIS LOW LVL JET IS DEVELOPING BENEATH AN INVERSION...WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR SUFFOLK COUNTY FOR A POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY SO STAY TUNED.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING TUE BEHIND A SECONDARY UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE...BUT TEMPS WILL ...STILL... AVG ABOVE NORMAL. &&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

FAIR AND MILD WX LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU AS YET ANOTHER LARGE HIGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA WED/THU...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. THE 30/00Z GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF SURFACE/UPPER FEATURES...AT LEAST THROUGH THU NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED EAST COAST RIDGE LOOKED A LITTLE SLOW TO BRING IN PRECIP THU NIGHT/FRI...AND HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION GIVEN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SW RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WITH H8 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARGUE FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE... MEX/HPC GUIDANCE MINS FOR FOR THU NIGHT LOOKED TOO LOW OVER INLAND SECTIONS AND WERE BUMPED UP ABOVE FREEZING. &&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 06Z MON. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 05Z-06Z ACROSS WESTERN AND NYC AREA TERMINALS...AND AROUND 07Z-09Z ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT ONSET AT KSWF...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME ICING ON AIRCRAFT BUT TARMAC TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM. CIGS LOWER TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK MON AS RAINFALL INCREASES IN INTENSITY...WITH VSBY FALLING TO LOW MVFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SE AFTER 06Z...TO 10-15 WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. KJFK MAY HAVE SUSTAINED SSE WINDS AROUND 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. LLWS MAY BECOME A PROBLEM MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS AT 2 KFT INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KT. &&

.HYDROLOGY...WE ARE FORECASTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST FCST MOVEMENTS...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM WHEN UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN FLOODING. &&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE BY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A TIGHT SE GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE A 50 KT LLJ CROSSING OVER THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM W TO E WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AT 500 FT ABOVE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 35 KT...BUT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN. WITH WATER TEMPS STILL AROUND 50 DEGREES THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING AND ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT. BEST CHANCE OF GALE GUSTS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS A BIT AND PERHAPS LESS OF AN INVERSION. SO WILL GO UP WITH GALES THERE FOR MORNING/AFTERNOON AS LLJ PASSES OVER. SCA WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS REST OF WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO WILL GO UP WITH SCA FOR REST OF WATERS EARLY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING.

SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 10 TO 14 FT ON THE OCEAN BY MON AFTERNOON WITH LONG SE FETCH OF MARGINAL GALE WINDS.

GRADIENT WEAKENS MON NIGHT AS COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS...WITH ALL WATERS FALLING BELOW SCA WINDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON OCEAN WATERS THOUGH.

CAA AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING SCA WIND GUSTS BACK TO THE OCEAN WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY ALL WATERS FOR TUESDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

IN TERMS OF TIDES...NEED ABOUT 1.5 FT DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGHER TIDES EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS AND NY HARBOR WITH SE/S FETCH. DEPARTURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT AROUND 0.5 TO 1 FT...SO DO NOT EXPECT COASTAL FLOODING. &&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SCA FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM MON FOR ANZ330-335-338. SCA FROM 2 AM MON TO 1 PM TUE FOR ANZ355. SCA FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MON FOR ANZ350-353. GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM MON FOR ANZ350-353. &&

$$

MORNING UPDATE...GOODMAN PUBLIC...GC AVIATION/MARINE...NV

...THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW YEAR WILL BE WET AND MILD...

.NEAR TERM (TODAY)... AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...SCT TO BKN BANDS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL SE DOWN THE UPSTREAM FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE LAST DAY OF THIS YEAR WILL END ON A TRANQUIL NOTE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. &&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... FORECAST MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE:

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET...AT THE ONSET MAINLY FROM 10 PM UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COS. BECAUSE OF WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS INCLUDING GROUND TEMPS...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING...MAINLY FROM 7 AM UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY WHEN UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND WHERE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH PLUS ACROSS LAND FROM EASTERN NYC EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT DURING NEW YEAR`S DAY.

ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRES SYS OVER NORTHEAST KS INTENSIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES NNE AND PASSES NE OF LAKE HURON DURING MONDAY. ITS` ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SSW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E PASSING E OF THE REGION BY EARLY MON NIGHT...SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN SHOWN BY THE LATEST GFS OPERATIONAL RUN.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES E OFF THE COAST THIS EVE...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PATTERN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR BY 10 PM...BEFORE AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT IS DURING THIS TIME...THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND. BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...ALL FCST MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STG LOW LVL S JET...50 TO 60 KT PLUS AT 925 MB AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD AID IN LOW LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SLOWING FRONT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME HVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE THIS LOW LVL JET IS DEVELOPING BENEATH AN INVERSION...WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR SUFFOLK COUNTY FOR A POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY SO STAY TUNED.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING TUE BEHIND A SECONDARY UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE...BUT TEMPS WILL ...STILL... AVG ABOVE NORMAL. &&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

FAIR AND MILD WX LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU AS YET ANOTHER LARGE HIGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA WED/THU...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. THE 30/00Z GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF SURFACE/UPPER FEATURES...AT LEAST THROUGH THU NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED EAST COAST RIDGE LOOKED A LITTLE SLOW TO BRING IN PRECIP THU NIGHT/FRI...AND HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION GIVEN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SW RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WITH H8 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARGUE FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE... MEX/HPC GUIDANCE MINS FOR FOR THU NIGHT LOOKED TOO LOW OVER INLAND SECTIONS AND WERE BUMPED UP ABOVE FREEZING. &&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH NW WINDS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NE. LIGHT NW TO N FLOW WILL BECOME LGT NE/E OR POSSIBLY LGT/VRBL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MID-DECK THIS EVENING. CLOUDS LOWER TO LOW VFR AND THEN MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT ONSET AT KSWF...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME ICING ON AIRCRAFT BUT TARMAC TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM. CIGS LOWER TO IFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY AS RAINFALL INCREASES IN INTENSITY WITH VSBY FALLING TO LOW MVFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SE AFTER 06Z...TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. KJFK MAY HAVE SUSTAINED SSE WINDS AROUND 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. LLWS APPEARS TO BECOME A PROBLEM MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KT. &&

.HYDROLOGY... WE ARE FORECASTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST FCST MOVEMENTS...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM WHEN UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN FLOODING. &&

.MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE BY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A TIGHT SE GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE A 50 KT LLJ CROSSING OVER THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM W TO E WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AT 500 FT ABOVE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 35 KT...BUT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN. WITH WATER TEMPS STILL AROUND 50 DEGREES THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING AND ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT. BEST CHANCE OF GALE GUSTS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS A BIT AND PERHAPS LESS OF AN INVERSION. SO WILL GO UP WITH GALES THERE FOR MORNING/AFTERNOON AS LLJ PASSES OVER. SCA WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS REST OF WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO WILL GO UP WITH SCA FOR REST OF WATERS EARLY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING.

SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 10 TO 14 FT ON THE OCEAN BY MON AFTERNOON WITH LONG SE FETCH OF MARGINAL GALE WINDS.

GRADIENT WEAKENS MON NIGHT AS COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS...WITH ALL WATERS FALLING BELOW SCA WINDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON OCEAN WATERS THOUGH.

CAA AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING SCA WIND GUSTS BACK TO THE OCEAN WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY ALL WATERS FOR TUESDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

IN TERMS OF TIDES...NEED ABOUT 1.5 FT DEPARTURES ABOVE NOMRAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGHER TIDES EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS AND NY HARBOR WITH SE/S FETCH. DEPARTURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT AROUND .5 TO 1 FT...SO NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING. &&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350- 353.

GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ PUBLIC...GC AVIATION/MARINE...NV

...THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW YEAR WILL BE WET AND MILD...

.NEAR TERM (TODAY)... AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...SCT TO BKN BANDS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL SE DOWN THE UPSTREAM FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE LAST DAY OF THIS YEAR WILL END ON A TRANQUIL NOTE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. &&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... FORECAST MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE:

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET...AT THE ONSET MAINLY FROM 10 PM UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COS. BECAUSE OF WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS INCLUDING GROUND TEMPS...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING...MAINLY FROM 7 AM UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY WHEN UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND WHERE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH PLUS ACROSS LAND FROM EASTERN NYC EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT DURING NEW YEAR`S DAY.

ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRES SYS OVER NORTHEAST KS INTENSIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES NNE AND PASSES NE OF LAKE HURON DURING MONDAY. ITS` ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SSW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E PASSING E OF THE REGION BY EARLY MON NIGHT...SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN SHOWN BY THE LATEST GFS OPERATIONAL RUN.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES E OFF THE COAST THIS EVE...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PATTERN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR BY 10 PM...BEFORE AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT IS DURING THIS TIME...THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND. BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...ALL FCST MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STG LOW LVL S JET...50 TO 60 KT PLUS AT 925 MB AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD AID IN LOW LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SLOWING FRONT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME HVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE THIS LOW LVL JET IS DEVELOPING BENEATH AN INVERSION...WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR SUFFOLK COUNTY FOR A POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY SO STAY TUNED.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING TUE BEHIND A SECONDARY UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE...BUT TEMPS WILL ...STILL... AVG ABOVE NORMAL. &&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

FAIR AND MILD WX LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU AS YET ANOTHER LARGE HIGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA WED/THU...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. THE 30/00Z GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF SURFACE/UPPER FEATURES...AT LEAST THROUGH THU NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED EAST COAST RIDGE LOOKED A LITTLE SLOW TO BRING IN PRECIP THU NIGHT/FRI...AND HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION GIVEN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SW RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WITH H8 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARGUE FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE... MEX/HPC GUIDANCE MINS FOR FOR THU NIGHT LOOKED TOO LOW OVER INLAND SECTIONS AND WERE BUMPED UP ABOVE FREEZING. &&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH NW WINDS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NE. LIGHT NW TO N FLOW WILL BECOME LGT NE/E OR POSSIBLY LGT/VRBL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MID-DECK THIS EVENING. CLOUDS LOWER TO LOW VFR AND THEN MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT ONSET AT KSWF...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME ICING ON AIRCRAFT BUT TARMAC TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM. CIGS LOWER TO IFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY AS RAINFALL INCREASES IN INTENSITY WITH VSBY FALLING TO LOW MVFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SE AFTER 06Z...TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. KJFK MAY HAVE SUSTAINED SSE WINDS AROUND 20 KT BY DAYBREAK. LLWS APPEARS TO BECOME A PROBLEM MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KT. &&

.HYDROLOGY... WE ARE FORECASTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST FCST MOVEMENTS...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM WHEN UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN FLOODING. &&

.MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE BY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A TIGHT SE GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE A 50 KT LLJ CROSSING OVER THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM W TO E WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AT 500 FT ABOVE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 35 KT...BUT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN. WITH WATER TEMPS STILL AROUND 50 DEGREES THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING AND ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT. BEST CHANCE OF GALE GUSTS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS A BIT AND PERHAPS LESS OF AN INVERSION. SO WILL GO UP WITH GALES THERE FOR MORNING/AFTERNOON AS LLJ PASSES OVER. SCA WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS REST OF WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO WILL GO UP WITH SCA FOR REST OF WATERS EARLY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING.

SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 10 TO 14 FT ON THE OCEAN BY MON AFTERNOON WITH LONG SE FETCH OF MARGINAL GALE WINDS.

GRADIENT WEAKENS MON NIGHT AS COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS...WITH ALL WATERS FALLING BELOW SCA WINDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON OCEAN WATERS THOUGH.

CAA AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING SCA WIND GUSTS BACK TO THE OCEAN WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY ALL WATERS FOR TUESDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. &&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350- 353.

GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ PUBLIC...GC AVIATION/MARINE...NV

.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON GRIDS/ZONES...

248 PM CST

UPR LOW CENTERED OVR NRN MO THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG S/WV ASSOCIATED WITH 130KT JET STRK LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MID MS/LWR OH VLYS. DRY SLOT OVR MUCH OF FCST AREA SINCE THIS MORNING STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT...WITH SCT RW/TRW BEGINNING TO DVLP BENEATH DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STRK ALONG LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT AS UPPER LVL FORCING INCRSG WITH APPRCH OF S/WV. RECENT ACARS AND FCST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS SPC/RUC MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATE CAPE VALUES MARGINAL...THOUGH GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VCNTY OCCLUSION EXPECT SCT RW/TRW TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS AS S/WV CONTINUES TO APPRCH. MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS FCST AREA THIS EVENING...THOUGH SECONDARY VORT MAXIMA WRAPPING AROUND BACK SIDE RESULTS IN LINGERING UPPER TROUGHINESS AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEAK MID/UPR LVL FORCING INDICATED BY Q CONVERGENCE FIELDS. THIS S/WV TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES ACROSS FCST AREA MONDAY MORNING...THUS EXPECT SOME LINGERING CHC FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVRNGT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVCTN TNGT RESULTS IN THICKNESS VALUES FALLING ESPECIALLY AFTR MDNGT...WITH 1000-850 HPA BELOW 1300 METERS AND 850-700 HPA DOWN TO 1520-1530 METERS BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS AND TSECTS INDICATE MOIST LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW BY THAT TIME HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY WARMER THAN -10C THAT WOULD NOT SUPPORT SIG ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROLONGED FORCING WITH SECOND VORT/TROUGH AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CLOUD LAYER OR SEEDING FROM COLDER HIGHER CLOUD LAYER...WILL MENTION LIGHT RA/SN AFTER MDNT INTO MON MRNG. UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF FCST AREA BY AFTN...WITH MODEL TSECTS AND DIV-Q/OMEGA FIELDS SUGGESTING FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE DVLPG. THUS WILL GO DRY FOR MON AFTN WITH CLRG SKIES BY EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS MID MS/OH VLYS.

MID WEEK APPEARS DRY AND CONTINUED MILD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF/CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST...AND NORTHERN BRANCH OF JET BECOMES MORE ZONAL. GFS/NAM SIMILAR WITH NRN STRM S/WV MOVG THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUES/TUES NGT...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW LEVELS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS BLOCKING OFF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF EXPECT NO MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. SOUTHWESTERN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH GLOBAL MODELS DVLPG BROAD TROUGH IN SOMEWHAT PHASED NRN/SRN STREAMS BY FRI/SAT. BEST PCPN CHANCES INITIALLY TO OUR SOUTH AND OFF TO OUR NORTH...UNTIL MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPRCHS FRI NGT AND SATURDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR INITIALLY RA FRI NGT AND THEN RA/SN SAT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AGAIN TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD. MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS GENERALLY PREFERRED EARLY ON...THEN GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE HPC/MEX NUMBERS MID WEEK AS LLVL SW FLOW DVLPS.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...

THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO NERN IA WHILE THE UPPER LOW CENTER HANGS BACK OVER NRN MO. THE MAIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS MOVED TO NEWD AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AND A PERIOD OF IFR AND LIFR CIGS/VIS IS SETTING UP AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA TRAPPING THE REGION UNDER LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES OVER NRN IL EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MID LEVEL FORCING AS WELL AS MAKING THE AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE WITH MID LEVEL COOLING. CIGS/VIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPO GROUP OF SHRA. ISOL TS ARE A POSSIBILITY...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD. AFTER SUNSET...ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL END...AND CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARND 15-20KT ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25KT OR SO. FINALLY AFTER THE SFC LOW HAS PASSED NE OF THE REGION DURG THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WINDS WILL TURN MORE WLY TO NWLY...BUT THIS WILL ALSO DRAG COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...LOWERING CIGS AND VIS AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS. UNDER PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING FOR MORE SHRA. HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE AND LATEST MODEL TIMESECTIONS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGOVER TO SHSN...BUT WITH JUST A LITTLE MORE COOLING THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A MIS OF SHRA AND SHSN.

KREIN

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...SCA IL WATERS TO GYY THRU 00Z TUESDAY. SCA GYY TO MICHIGAN CITY THRU 06Z TUESDAY.

&&

$$

.UPDATE... UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO END SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. DECREASING COVERAGE OF ECHOES ON 88D LAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGEST THERE WAS SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AS WELL AS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. EXPECTING SPRINKLES AT MOST OVER SE PORTION OF CWA REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS OVER IA SPREADING EAST SHOULD REACH THE CWA BEFORE DAWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... AVIATION... BACK EDGE OF LARGE STRATO CU DECK NEAR SERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WAS MOVG SE AROUND 20KT. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS LATEST NAM12 AND EARLIER TAFS CLEARED TERMINALS OUT A LITTLE TOO FAST... ADJUSTED CLEARING AT SBN BACK TO 01Z AND FWA TO 04Z. SFC RIDGE OVER IA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST CROSSING NRN INDIANA EARLY TUE MORNING. BUFKIT NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT TAMDAR UPSTREAM IN ATW SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG FROM FORMING SO DESPITE CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LEFT VSBYS AT P6SM. DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN CONTD VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE.

SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LOW TO MID LVL TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT ESE OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. KIWX RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U. S. 30. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT. A SHEARING MID LVL S/WV WILL APCH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL ADVECT EAST OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...REACHING THE WRN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY. BELIEVE MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL BE OPAQUE ENOUGH TO WARRANT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S. SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH WAA ASSOCD WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIKELY INTO THURS NGT. NAM-WRF 12Z RUN INCREASES ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MSTR FROM 925 TO 850 MB. GIVEN MAIN FLOW FROM GULF IS CUT OFF TILL LATE THURSDAY AND ARRIVAL OF MSTR LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL FRIDAY...CAN`T SEE ANY REASON TO BUY INTO QPF AT THIS POINT. WOULD EXPECT A SLOWER TREND...AS NOTED IN PAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...TO EJECTION OF ENERGY AND IN ACTUALITY IF YOU WENT WITH NEW GFS WOULD ARGUE THAT BEST POPS WILL BE FURTHER SE...WITH THE MAIN SHOW NOT REALLY UNTIL FRI NGT OR SAT...WHICH IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER FRONT AND VARIATIONS IN MODELS...PERSISTENCE IS IN ORDER SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FRI THROUGH SAT. IN TERMS OF TEMPS THROUGH SAT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PREVAIL...WITH WARMEST TEMPS POTENTIALLY ON FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARDS 10 C MAINLY SE. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER COULD HAMPER THIS SO WILL ADJUST TEMPS UP A BIT THURS THROUGH SAT BUT NOTHING DRAMATIC.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE DAYS 6 INTO 7 WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS POSSIBLE RANGING FROM MSTR STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING IN FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA...NORTHERN LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FINALLY SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN GULF AND TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF COLDER AIR ATTEMPTING TO RETURN FROM THE NW WITH POCKET OF -20 C OR COLDER 850 MB TEMPS THAT HAVE BEEN TRAPPED WELL NORTH ATTEMPTING TO WORK SOUTH SOMEWHAT. IF N GREAT LAKES LOW SCENARIO OR WEAK FRONT TAKE PLACE THEN AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MAY NOT BE AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED. HOWEVER IF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPS MAY ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE PULLED IN TO BRING A RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW. AT THIS POINT TOO EARLY TO ADD ANYTHING IN AS TRACK VARIANCES EXPECTED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE LACK OF GOOD DATA OVER PACIFIC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...FISHER AVIATION/UPDATE...TAYLOR

.AVIATION... BACK EDGE OF LARGE STRATO CU DECK NEAR SERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WAS MOVG SE AROUND 20KT. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS LATEST NAM12 AND EARLIER TAFS CLEARED TERMINALS OUT A LITTLE TOO FAST... ADJUSTED CLEARING AT SBN BACK TO 01Z AND FWA TO 04Z. SFC RIDGE OVER IA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST CROSSING NRN INDIANA EARLY TUE MORNING. BUFKIT NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT TAMDAR UPSTREAM IN ATW SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG FROM FORMING SO DESPITE CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LEFT VSBYS AT P6SM. DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN CONTD VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LOW TO MID LVL TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT ESE OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. KIWX RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U. S. 30. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT. A SHEARING MID LVL S/WV WILL APCH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL ADVECT EAST OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...REACHING THE WRN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY. BELIEVE MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL BE OPAQUE ENOUGH TO WARRANT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S. SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH WAA ASSOCD WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIKELY INTO THURS NGT. NAM-WRF 12Z RUN INCREASES ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MSTR FROM 925 TO 850 MB. GIVEN MAIN FLOW FROM GULF IS CUT OFF TILL LATE THURSDAY AND ARRIVAL OF MSTR LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL FRIDAY...CAN`T SEE ANY REASON TO BUY INTO QPF AT THIS POINT. WOULD EXPECT A SLOWER TREND...AS NOTED IN PAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...TO EJECTION OF ENERGY AND IN ACTUALITY IF YOU WENT WITH NEW GFS WOULD ARGUE THAT BEST POPS WILL BE FURTHER SE...WITH THE MAIN SHOW NOT REALLY UNTIL FRI NGT OR SAT...WHICH IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER FRONT AND VARIATIONS IN MODELS...PERSISTENCE IS IN ORDER SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FRI THROUGH SAT. IN TERMS OF TEMPS THROUGH SAT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PREVAIL...WITH WARMEST TEMPS POTENTIALLY ON FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARDS 10 C MAINLY SE. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER COULD HAMPER THIS SO WILL ADJUST TEMPS UP A BIT THURS THROUGH SAT BUT NOTHING DRAMATIC.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE DAYS 6 INTO 7 WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS POSSIBLE RANGING FROM MSTR STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING IN FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA...NORTHERN LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FINALLY SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN GULF AND TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF COLDER AIR ATTEMPTING TO RETURN FROM THE NW WITH POCKET OF -20 C OR COLDER 850 MB TEMPS THAT HAVE BEEN TRAPPED WELL NORTH ATTEMPTING TO WORK SOUTH SOMEWHAT. IF N GREAT LAKES LOW SCENARIO OR WEAK FRONT TAKE PLACE THEN AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MAY NOT BE AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED. HOWEVER IF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPS MAY ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE PULLED IN TO BRING A RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW. AT THIS POINT TOO EARLY TO ADD ANYTHING IN AS TRACK VARIANCES EXPECTED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE LACK OF GOOD DATA OVER PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION... KIWX RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTN WERE INDICATING AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX ACRS THE FCST AREA. THIS PCPN WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW TO MID LVL TROF AXIS. THE TROF AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACRS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN. THE LOW LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF AXIS...ALLOWING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THEN...SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z IN ADVANCE OF A SHEARING MID LVL S/WV. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO MIST TOWARD 12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA. HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FCST ATTM AS THE FORMATION OF MIST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST MID LVL CLOUDINESS MOVES INTO THE REGION. LATER FCSTS WILL BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE POSSIBILITY OF MIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...FISHER AVIATION...TAYLOR

.UPDATE... ISSUED UPDATE AS SOME SC HAS DVLPD OVER THE ERN ZNS IN NW FLOW DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER INVRN ARND H875 SHOWN ON 22Z TAMDAR SDNG FM CIU. ALSO BUMPED UP LO TEMPS NR LK SUP ESPECIALLY E OF P53 AND OVER THE W WHERE STEADY WNW FLOW WL LEAVE THESE AREAS EXPOSED TO MORE LK MODIFIED AIR. AS HIGH PRES RDG AXIS TO THE W MOVES E AND LLVL FLOW BACKS TO MORE W LATER...EXPECT LO CLD OVER THE E TO CLR WITH ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS TO THE W (00Z PWAT 0.19 INCH AT MPX/INL AND 0.21 INCH AT GRB) WHERE SKIES ARE MOCLR AND SHALLOW INVRN IS JUST ABV THE SFC AS SHOWN ON 22Z TAMDAR SDNGS FM CMX/SAW. MAINTAINED FCST LO TEMPS BLO MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SN FELL LAST NGT...AS NR SFC LYR IS MORE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE WITH HI LLVL STABILITY UNDER DRY AIRMASS MOVING OVHD.

KC

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 243 PM)... UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN AZ AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND AND UPPER RIDGING ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.

SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND WILL HEAD ESE TONIGHT AND AFFECT THE AREA TUE WITH UPPER LEVELS BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME FOR UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUE AND GLANCES THE NORTHERN CWA TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT HEADS BY TO THE NORTH.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJMVR FOR HIGHS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE AS HAVE FRESH SNOWCOVER OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH LITTLE SNOWCOVER IN THE EAST HALF AND LIGHT WIND AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK AFTER THE SUN SETS. SOME RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN A FEW PLACES WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM DAY WITH MOST PLACES GETTING INTO THE 40S. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 00Z FRI. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z FRI WITH MORE TROUGHING FOR SAT AND SUN. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH TROUGHING IN THE AREA AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HARD TO TIME THESE...SO WILL BROADBRUSH AT THIS TIME. WILL GO CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR TEMPERATURES AS THESE SEEMED REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

MICHELS

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&

$$

.UPDATE...STARTED DOWNGRADING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...BUT WILL LEAVE SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT GOING OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM...FOR COMBO OF DEVELOPING FOG AND ICY ROADS OR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL. LOWERED A FEW OVER NIGHT LOW TEMPS AS WELL WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST MINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 257 PM MST SAT DEC 30 2006... RECORD BREAKING WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. STORM TOTALS SO FAR ON THE ORDER OF 12-20 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE ABQ AREA WITH 18-26 INCHES IN AND AROUND SANTA FE. SOME PORTIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS HAVE RECEIVED MORE THAN 30 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW RATIOS APPEARED TO PAN OUT WITH 5-10 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM WITH 15-20 TO 1 FOR THE SECOND HALF. CAN ONLY IMAGINE IF ENTIRE STORM HAD BEEN ABOVE 10 TO 1. THE REAL HAZARD HOWEVER HAS BEEN IN AND AROUND THE CLAYTON AREA WHERE STRONG WIND AND HEAVY SNOW HAS CREATED DRIFTS TOPPING 10 FEET. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES IN ALL AREAS WITH WRAP AROUND SNOWS AND DROPPED NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTNS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ABQ AND SAF AREAS ALONG WITH NE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE THIS STORM ONE TO REMEMBER FOR QUITE SOME TIME!

21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1010MB LOW PRES SYSTEM SPRAWLING OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING WESTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER SE NM FINALLY PUSHING EAST INTO TEXAS. 400-200MB AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS A 50-70 KNOT JET EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEPLY SATURATED WRAP AROUND BAND OVER CENTRAL NM. RADAR TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LOOSING ITS FORCING AS THE 50-70 KNOT DIVES SOUTH AND THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENS WITH LOW PULLING EAST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND THROUGH THE EVENING SO LEFT HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE AREAS INTACT.

12Z/18Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS INITIALIZATIONS OF THE DETAILS ACROSS THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE PRECIP FIELDS... HAVE BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE. GENERAL AGREEMENT ALSO FROM THE 12Z GFS ALONG WITH THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. QUICK LOOK AT THE EARLY MORNING MREF/SREF SOLNS ALSO PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR FCST. NAM SHOWS LARGE SCALE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST OUT OF NM BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. SKIES WILL SLOWLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE E PLAINS SUN MORNING AND MON MORNING AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES AT KABQ AND KTCC SHOW SHALLOW SATURATED LAYERS EACH MORNING WITH THE AID OF SNOW COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF LATEST RECORD BREAKING SYSTEM FOR LATE TUES SHOWING SIGNS OF MODEL FLIP FLOP ESPECIALLY WITH GFS. GFS SHOWING SYSTEM CLOSING OFF AND DIVING WELL FURTHER SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO. DID NOT GET CHANCE TO LOOK AT MREF MEMBERS OUT THAT FAR BUT HAVE SEEN GFS DO THIS IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LEFT POPS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED EXCEPT TO TWEAK TOWARD THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE... EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002>004-009>011-015>017-026.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ005>007-012-013-018>021.

$$

.SYNOPSIS...WARM...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY GENERATING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE OF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE WASHINGTON-OREGON BORDER ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER THREAT OF RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT UP OVER N VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS EVENING...SO MODELS STILL SEEM ON TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE 160+ KT JETSTREAM OFFSHORE...PROPAGATING UP THE COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE CHARACTER OF THESE WAVES BY SHOWING SOME PULSING IN THE 3 HOURLY QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 18Z GFS ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE THE SMALL SHORTWAVE NEAR 45N/150W AT 00Z INITIALIZED WELL...THIS ONE SUPPOSEDLY BEING THE WAVE THAT SHOVES THE COLD FRONT S OF WESTERN WA TUESDAY EVENING.

LATEST 18Z GFS/00Z NAM ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN WA AS WELL AS THE STRONG MOIST S-SW FLOW OVER THE AREA UP UNTIL FROPA. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THE FRONT OVER THE OLYMPICS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND JUST CLEARING PUGET SOUND AROUND 03Z...THIS IS ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL TIMING 24 HOURS AGO. 00Z NAM12 AND 12Z MM5GFS STILL SHOWING HEAVY QPF OVER THE OLYMPICS...4+ INCHES IN 24HRS ENDING TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE NAM12 AND 6+ INCHES BY THE MM5GFS. N CASCADES QPF IS JUST A STEP BEHIND.

FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR OLYMPIC AND N CASCADES RIVERS. LATEST RFC DATA SHOWS THE SKOKOMISH RIVER FLOODING AROUND 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...AND UP-TURN IN THE CURRENT STAGE DATA SEEMS TO FIT THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH PRETTY WELL. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKOK THIS EVENING. AVALANCHE UNIT MOUNTAIN SENSORS AND ACARS OBS SHOW THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 7000 FT THIS EVENING SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF LIQUID COMING DOWN OVER THE NEXT 30+ HOURS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADE PASSES...AIMED PRIMARILY AT FREEZING RAIN...IS STILL WORKING OUT. PASS LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUB-FREEZING WHILE THE MAIN FREEZING LEVEL IS ABOVE 7000 FEET. WSDOT ROAD REPORTS SHOW SOME FREEZING RAIN AT STEVENS BUT JUST RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ON SNOQUALMIE. MUST BE TOO MUCH LIQUID ON THE SURFACE FOR THE RAIN TO FREEZE QUICKLY. THUS WILL HOLD ON TO THE ADVISORY BUT NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING WELL. KNUW...ONE OF THE WINDIER LOCATIONS HAS BEEN GUSTING 40-50 MPH AND OTHER SPOTS HAVE BEEN GUSTING INTO THE 30S. LATEST 00Z GFS SHOWS THE SE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY AROUND 18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO THE WESTERN STRAIT AS WELL.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE FOLLOWING LOW ACROSS OREGON ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE PRECIP SHIELD REACHES UP OVER WESTERN WA. THIS MAY BE THE WAVE TRYING TO FORM OUT NEAR 35N/170W. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT RUNS HAVE A NICE CONSOLIDATED FLOW AIMED RIGHT AT OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP IS GOOD FOR PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITS...THIS COULD BE HEAVY MOUNTAIN RAINS...OR HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS...OR BOTH AT TIMES. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS. CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE N COAST WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER WRN WA TONIGHT AND TUE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH LCL IFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH 00-03Z TUE EVENING WITH CIGS IMPROVING.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND TUE W/ TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE DURING BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN.

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. .GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON COAST...STRAIT ENTRANCES... ADMIRALTY INLET...AND CAMANO ISLAND TO POINT ROBERTS. .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL. .HIGH WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH TUE. .FLOOD WATCH FOR RIVERS OFF THE OLYMPICS AND WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES KING COUNTY NORTHWARD FOR TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

.UPDATED...STEADY RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECT FOG...AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOG IS AGAIN A PROBLEM TONIGHT THOUGH NOT AS DENSE AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AREA OF LIGHT PCPN MOVED THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. CALLS AROUND THE AREA DID NOT INDICATE ANY SIG PROBLEM WITH ICE ATTM. SINCE THEN TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING WITH ALL SIGHTS AT FREEZING OR ABOVE. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING TWO AREAS OF PCPN MOVING TOWARDS NE WI. THE AREA OF MAIN CONCERN IS LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DYNAMICS WITH JET LIFTING NORTH ON EAST SIDE OF LOW. EXPECT THIS AREA TO OVERSPREAD AREA BEGINNING MID MORNING. SECOND AREA MAKING SLOW WAY THROUGH MN ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. MAIN CHANGES THIS PERIOD WAS TO ADJUST PCPN TYPE AND SPEED UP EXIT OF PCPN MONDAY. WITH LATER ONSET OF HEAVIER PCPN AND WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...HAVE BACKED OFF ON FREEZING PCPN THIS MORNING.

SURFACE LOW TO LIFT OUT INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY 12Z MON. WILL STAY WITH ALL LIQUID THROUGH TODAY AS ALL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM MIDNIGHT AT RHI SHOWED +5 DEGREE WARM LAYER. TIMEFRAME OF CHANGEOVER NOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING NW CWA WITH JUST A MIX AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SE CWA. HAVE BACKED DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS WITH QUICKER EXIT. MAX AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME 2 TO 4 INCHES...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH WILL STILL MODERATE THE HIGHS...BELOW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NITE THRU SATURDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY EARLY ON AS THE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A WEAK SYSTEM THRU THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NITE WHILE THE DGEX AND MREF STAYS DRY. GIVEN THE DRY FORECAST AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WILL KEEP THESE PERIODS DRY.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN BRING THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EASTWARD WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NITE AND SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN IS A BIT TOO QUICK WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS THE OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SNEAKS SOME PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY THE MREF PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NITE. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MREF/GFS/ECMWF WILL TREND THE PRECIP A PERIOD SOONER INTO FRIDAY NITE BUT LEAVE FRIDAY DRY PER THE MREF QPF. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ANY RAIN MENTION AND LOWER HIGHS ON SATURDAY. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&

$$ MG WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOG IS AGAIN A PROBLEM TONIGHT THOUGH NOT AS DENSE AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AREA OF LIGHT PCPN MOVED THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. CALLS AROUND THE AREA DID NOT INDICATE ANY SIG PROBLEM WITH ICE ATTM. SINCE THEN TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING WITH ALL SIGHTS AT FREEZING OR ABOVE. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING TWO AREAS OF PCPN MOVING TOWARDS NE WI. THE AREA OF MAIN CONCERN IS LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DYNAMICS WITH JET LIFTING NORTH ON EAST SIDE OF LOW. EXPECT THIS AREA TO OVERSPREAD AREA BEGINNING MID MORNING. SECOND AREA MAKING SLOW WAY THROUGH MN ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. MAIN CHANGES THIS PERIOD WAS TO ADJUST PCPN TYPE AND SPEED UP EXIT OF PCPN MONDAY. WITH LATER ONSET OF HEAVIER PCPN AND WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...HAVE BACKED OFF ON FREEZING PCPN THIS MORNING.

SURFACE LOW TO LIFT OUT INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY 12Z MON. WILL STAY WITH ALL LIQUID THROUGH TODAY AS ALL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM MIDNIGHT AT RHI SHOWED +5 DEGREE WARM LAYER. TIMEFRAME OF CHANGEOVER NOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING NW CWA WITH JUST A MIX AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SE CWA. HAVE BACKED DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS WITH QUICKER EXIT. MAX AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME 2 TO 4 INCHES...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH WILL STILL MODERATE THE HIGHS...BELOW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NITE THRU SATURDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY EARLY ON AS THE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A WEAK SYSTEM THRU THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NITE WHILE THE DGEX AND MREF STAYS DRY. GIVEN THE DRY FORECAST AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WILL KEEP THESE PERIODS DRY.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN BRING THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EASTWARD WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NITE AND SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN IS A BIT TOO QUICK WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS THE OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SNEAKS SOME PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY THE MREF PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NITE. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MREF/GFS/ECMWF WILL TREND THE PRECIP A PERIOD SOONER INTO FRIDAY NITE BUT LEAVE FRIDAY DRY PER THE MREF QPF. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ANY RAIN MENTION AND LOWER HIGHS ON SATURDAY. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&

$$ TE/KURIMSKI WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

QUITE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW TO STRENGTHEN...INCLUDING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IR LOOP SHOWS SOME HIGH AC MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN ASSOCIATE WITH SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AS NOTED ON THE 300K SURFACE. THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD TO AFFECT THE CWA TODAY AND HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. HOWEVER 850 MB TEMPS WARM 4 DEGREES TODAY AND EVEN WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE MID 40S. ANTICIPATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD TO COVER TO BREAK UP THOUGH AS MODELS SHOW UPPER CONFLUENCE INCREASING TODAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER TO BE REINFORCED THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS CURRENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THOUGH. COMBINATION OF AT LEAST EVENING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS ONLY AROUND 30 AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE ALSO ON THE INCREASE AS A RESULT. LOTS OF ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SATELLITE/AIRCRAFT ESTIMATES INDICATE A 180 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) OFF THE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE 00Z GFS INITIALIZATION SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT THIS JET. THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST REALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP BY LATE THURSDAY...AS THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC ENERGY/SHORTWAVES. ALTHOUGH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER ARIZONA MAY NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...STILL CONCERNS FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET (140+ KNOTS) FRIDAY MORNING...PER 12Z GFS. THE 00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...WHILE THE 00Z UKMET IS ALSO INDICATING A STRONG UPPER WAVE TRACKING THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT MUCH FASTER (00Z FRIDAY). MEANWHILE...THE 00Z EUROPEAN INDICATES A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AT BEST MOVING THROUGH...BUT BRINGS THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW FARTHEST NORTH...IMPACTING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER LAKE ERIE. UNFORTUNATELY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT A HUGE HELP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS ABOUT HALF ARE DRY OR BASICALLY DRY (A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS) WITH THE OTHER HALF INDICATING AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH QPF TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. WITH ALL THAT INFORMATION...PLANNING ON CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SUPPORT/AGREEMENT AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL ABOUND WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON MAXES. WE HAVE A 40 POP GOING AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE AT THIS TIME WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S...WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...THE TREND OF THE FROPA IS A LITTLE FASTER BASED ON THE 00Z GFS/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN GLOBAL. WILL ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. MAXES SHOULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1147 PM EST MON JAN 1 2007

AVIATION...

TAF FORECASTS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE ARE SOLIDLY VFR. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS NIGHT. SOME HIGH AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS TUESDAY THINNING TUESDAY EVENING BEHIND MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM CLEARING THE AREA. 00Z MODEL FORECASTS FOR MOISTURE SHOW VERY DRY CONDITIONS BELOW 10K FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING EVEN WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT/ASCENT EXPECTED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421 UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSS LONG TERM....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

.SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WAVE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SHORE. THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS TILTED POSITIVELY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A DEEP UPPER LOW IS SINKING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 100-120KT WESTERLY JET FROM THE MIDWEST EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM THE NEW ENGLAND SHORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN MARYLAND. A TROUGH WAS IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A 1032MB ANTICYCLONE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ATOP THE MIX LAYER ARE NEAR 40KT SAMPLED BY MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS AND THE 12Z KIAD RAOB...WHICH COULD GET WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH DURING A SHORT OVERLAPPING PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING LATE THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE WIND CORE ALOFT MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COMBINATION OF DRY ADVECTION AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. MIXING UP TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 850MB AND 900MB SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BREAK 50F.

&&

.AVIATION... P6SM SKC WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... 06Z GFS AND 00Z ETA MOS AT THOMAS POINT SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. 09Z LWX WRF-NMM MARINE AND 06Z NAM/GFS PROXIMITY LAND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST THE SAME TREND WITH ANY WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KT RANGE DIMINISHING DURING THE MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT THE 22Z END TIME FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SO NOT TO CUT IT SO CLOSE...BUT ANTICIPATE CANCELING IT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM.

&&

.TIDES... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AT OR JUST BELOW ASTRONOMIC PREDICTIONS. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS AT A FULL MOON (99% FULL). THE CHESAPEAKE AND POTOMAC EXPERIENCED A BLOWOUT...WITH WATER LEVELS RETURNING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>537.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...ROGOWSKI

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...WITH SOME ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE BROKEN AC DECK 100-120 BETWEEN 16-22Z. REINFORCING SURGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02-08Z AS WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS 18-22Z...AS SURFACE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EST TUE JAN 2 2007

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

QUITE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW TO STRENGTHEN...INCLUDING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IR LOOP SHOWS SOME HIGH AC MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN ASSOCIATE WITH SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AS NOTED ON THE 300K SURFACE. THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD TO AFFECT THE CWA TODAY AND HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. HOWEVER 850 MB TEMPS WARM 4 DEGREES TODAY AND EVEN WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE MID 40S. ANTICIPATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD TO COVER TO BREAK UP THOUGH AS MODELS SHOW UPPER CONFLUENCE INCREASING TODAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER TO BE REINFORCED THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS CURRENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THOUGH. COMBINATION OF AT LEAST EVENING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS ONLY AROUND 30 AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...

MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE ALSO ON THE INCREASE AS A RESULT. LOTS OF ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SATELLITE/AIRCRAFT ESTIMATES INDICATE A 180 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) OFF THE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE 00Z GFS INITIALIZATION SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT THIS JET. THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST REALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP BY LATE THURSDAY...AS THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC ENERGY/SHORTWAVES. ALTHOUGH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER ARIZONA MAY NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...STILL CONCERNS FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET (140+ KNOTS) FRIDAY MORNING...PER 12Z GFS. THE 00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...WHILE THE 00Z UKMET IS ALSO INDICATING A STRONG UPPER WAVE TRACKING THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT MUCH FASTER (00Z FRIDAY). MEANWHILE...THE 00Z EUROPEAN INDICATES A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AT BEST MOVING THROUGH...BUT BRINGS THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW FARTHEST NORTH...IMPACTING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER LAKE ERIE. UNFORTUNATELY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT A HUGE HELP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS ABOUT HALF ARE DRY OR BASICALLY DRY (A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS) WITH THE OTHER HALF INDICATING AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH QPF TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. WITH ALL THAT INFORMATION...PLANNING ON CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SUPPORT/AGREEMENT AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL ABOUND WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON MAXES. WE HAVE A 40 POP GOING AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE AT THIS TIME WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S...WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...THE TREND OF THE FROPA IS A LITTLE FASTER BASED ON THE 00Z GFS/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN GLOBAL. WILL ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. MAXES SHOULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421 UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSS AVIATION.....GSS LONG TERM....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WAVE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SHORE. THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS TILTED POSITIVELY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A DEEP UPPER LOW IS SINKING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 100-120KT WESTERLY JET FROM THE MIDWEST EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM THE NEW ENGLAND SHORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN MARYLAND. A TROUGH WAS IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A 1032MB ANTICYCLONE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH THE EROSION OF MOUNTAIN STRATO-CU. HAVE RAISED CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA) LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE WAVE...AS A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...TRAPPING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNTOWN...LOW 30S ABOVE 2500FT AND ALONG THE BAY...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS RURAL LOW LYING AREAS. THE ADVECTION SIGN WILL SHIFT FROM COLD TO WARM OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN +5C OF WARMING NEAR 850MB. 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 850MB TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE +1-1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 60F WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...

P6SM SKC THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS GUSTS HAVE SLACKENED WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN. MAY SEE FEW-SCT250 AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

12Z GFS/ETA MOS AT THOMAS POINT...15Z LWX WRF-NMM MARINE AND 12Z NAM/GFS PROXIMITY LAND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. 18Z OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THIS TREND...SO WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE 330PM COASTAL WATER FORECAST ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT AT THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW 15 KT.

&&

.TIDES...

WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AT OR JUST BELOW ASTRONOMIC PREDICTIONS. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS AT A FULL MOON (99% FULL). THE CHESAPEAKE AND POTOMAC EXPERIENCED A BLOWOUT...WITH WATER LEVELS RETURNING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LARGE HIGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... BUT BY THU NIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. ONCE IT IS HERE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO TEMPS THAT ARE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE BUT CERTAINLY NOT COLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SEEMS TO BE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORN AT THE MOMENT... AND THE TIMING SEEMS TO BE SETTLING IN AFTER SOME ACCELERATION IN THE SYSTEM DURING PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

IN THE VERY LONG TERM. WINTER DOES SEEM TO BE MASSING ITS TROOPS ON THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING MIDDLE JANUARY. THE PAST FEW RUNS ON THE GFS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT UPCOMING LATER IN THE MONTH AS THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS AROUND TO OUR PART OF THE GLOBE. IT CERTAINLY WOULD MAKE SENSE AS WE NOW HAVE HAD SEVERAL WEEKS OF ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A LARGE ANOMALY LIKE THAT FOR MORE THAN A FEW WEEKS. OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF SHOTS OF COOL AIR... WE HAVE BEEN NEAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL SINCE EARLY NOVEMBER. DECEMBER WAS THE TENTH WARMEST ON RECORD IN DC AND 13TH WARMEST FOR BALTIMORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI LONG TERM...STRONG AVIATION...ROGOWSKI MARINE...ROGOWSKI/STRONG TIDES...ROGOWSKI

.SYNOPSIS... 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THIS ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH IS SEEN AS EITHER HIGH BASED ALTOSTRATUS OR CIRRUS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITHIN THE FLOW...A FEW SHRTWVS TO NOTE INCLUDE ONE OVER SW MANITOBA AND ANOTHER IN SW BRITISH COLUMBIA. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z INL AND BIS SOUNDINGS (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10C OR MORE FROM 900-500MB)...ALL THE SW MANITOBA SHRTWV HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE IS CIRRUS. THE DRY AIR EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...AND WITH LESS CIRRUS PRESENT AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB QUITE A BIT OFF MORNING LOWS. READINGS RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. BASED ON AN 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM HOUGHTON AND THESE READINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRESENT MIXING HEIGHT IS AROUND 940MB. THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO BEING HELPED BY SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...OCCURRING BETWEEN 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 986MB LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION PRESENT...WINDS ARE STRONGER JUST OFF THE SURFACE. KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING AT 2000FT...NOW AT 25 KT. AT CMX...THE SOUNDING SHOWED 30 KT AT 2000 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...

FOR TONIGHT...THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER SW MANITOBA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS TROUGH...COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL HELP TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE LAND SURFACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN WARM AIR ALOFT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL EXIST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO CREATE GALE FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FUNNELING NATURE OF THE SW WIND ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THEREFORE THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED. WIND GUSTS FROM THE 13 KM DEV RUC AND 950MB WINDS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALSO POINT TO THIS SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...SINCE THE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AM EXPECTING THAT DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS WILL NOT DROP A LOT...PROBABLY RIGHT NEAR FREEZING. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND. HOWEVER...FOR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS...DID RAISE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AS HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TROUGH WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ZONAL. THEREFORE DESPITE DNVA AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV TROUGH...PLENTY OF CIRRUS OR HIGH BASED ALTOSTRATUS SHOULD PERSIST. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TO AROUND RECORD HIGHS AS ENOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL GET THROUGH TO RESULT IN MIXING UP TO 940MB. ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT MIX UP TO THE LEVEL...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C BY 00Z THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THRU TUE)...

WINDS WILL STAY UP WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL COVER THE GREAT LAKES BTWN SFC HIGH PRES NEAR THE SE COAST AND FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRES OVER SCNTRL CANADA. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER ETA MOS NUMBERS FOR MINS. SOME INCREASE/THICKENING OF CLOUDS WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPS UP.

ON THU/THU NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE A COMPLICATED MIX OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA IN WSW FLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME EMPHASIS ON A SHORTWAVE TRACKING TOWARD UPPER MI BY THU EVENING. UKMET IS SHARPEST WITH WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROF REFLECTION REACHING WRN UPPER MI THU EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE GLOBAL CANADIAN PROVIDES SUPPORT TO THE OVERALL LOOK OF THE UKMET. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS THU AFTN WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. AT THIS POINT...DON`T THINK THESE DIFFERENCE SERIOUSLY IMPACT PCPN POTENTIAL AS MODELS SHOW MODEST WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN DEVELOPING. SHOULD BE SOME PCPN...BUT ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS IN THE LWR MID LEVELS WHICH TENDS TO HOLD ON AROUND 5KFT PER NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A ROLE IN DELAYING OR EVEN PREVENTING PCPN FROM REACHING THE SFC. IN THE DRIER LAYER...TEMPS ARE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIQUID PCPN (2 TO 4C)...BUT DUE TO THE DRYNESS...WETBULB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C. SO...PROVIDED ENOUGH MOISTENING CAN OCCUR... ANY LIGHT PCPN THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. IF PCPN DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY PER GFS...-FZRA COULD BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS PRODUCING PCPN TOO QUICKLY BASED ON ITS FCST SOUNDING WHICH REVEAL LINGERING DRY AIR WHEN IT FIRST GENERATES PCPN. WILL SHOOT FOR LOW CHC POPS FOR -RA/-SN THU AFTN THRU THU EVENING. WILL THEN DROP POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY THU OVERNIGHT.

TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON SITUATION FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. UKMET/CANADIAN SUGGEST DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT AND LASTING THRU FRI BEHIND THEIR SHARPER SHORTWAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. GFS ALSO SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER...POSSIBLY BEGINNING THU OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRI MORNING BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. IN LIGHT OF INHERITED FCST WHICH HAD CHC POPS FOR -SN/-RA THRU THE DAY FRI...THE UNCERTAINTIES SUGGEST JUST LOWERING CHC TO SLIGHT CHC FRI MORNING SINCE THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR THAT PERIOD TO BE DRY BASED ON 12Z RUNS. SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...SUPPORTING CHC POPS WITH TREND TO JUST SNOW AS PTYPE.

SAT THRU TUE...FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME FRAME... BUT WITH ONLY A SERIES OF WHAT SHOULD BE WEAK SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA TO PROVIDE FREQUENT CHANCES OF LIGHT PCPN. CANADIAN/UKMET/ECWMF AND GFS ALL SHOW A TENDENCY FOR BROAD MEAN TROFFING DURING THIS TIME ROUGHLY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. TIMING SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL BE A PROBLEM...BUT SURPRISINGLY MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE MOMENT. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING SAT...AND WILL END -SN CHC FROM W TO E. AT THIS POINT...IT DOESN`T LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LES. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA SUN...PROVIDING A CHC OF -SN. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN CHC -SN/FLURRIES INTO MON WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. 00Z GFS INDICATED THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE A DECENT CLIPPER TYPE SNOW PRODUCER WITH A RESPECTABLE SFC LOW TRACKING THRU CNTRL WI/NRN LWR MI MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS FOR A DAY 6-7 SYSTEM. GFS HAS SINCE BACKED OFF SOME ON THIS SYSTEM. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN IS FOR SHARPER CNTRL CONUS TROFFING MON WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING THRU THE UPPER LAKES. EVEN IF THIS IS OVERDONE...MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS -SN CHC MON/MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY LES ON TUE. AS FOR TEMPS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LACK OF ARCTIC AIR BUILDING UP OVER SRN CANADA DURING THIS TIME WITH PACIFIC FLOW STILL DRIVING INTO THE W COAST OF NAMERICA. THUS... TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL HERE (GENERALLY HIGHS MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH THE WARMER READINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD). DOWN THE ROAD... THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS THAT RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA...RELATED TO MJO ACTIVITY. SO THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY TRANSITION TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER WEATHER...PERHAPS EVEN BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE FREQUENT SNOWS...FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING WEST HALF LAKE SUPERIOR. &&

$$

AJ (SHORT TERM) ROLFSON (LONG TERM)

.AVIATION... MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH 18Z THURS WILL BE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS AROUND 925MB OR ABOUT 2000 FEET AGL INCREASE TO 35KTS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DETROIT AREA BY 09Z. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...EXPECT ENOUGH SURFACE RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY TONIGHT TO DECOUPLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS DOWN SOMEWHAT WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

MIXING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS STARTING ABOUT 14Z.

VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL VFR THROUGH 18Z THURS AS ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE SCT-BKN AC AND CI DECK THROUGH ABOUT 06Z ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EST TUE JAN 2 2007

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

QUITE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW TO STRENGTHEN...INCLUDING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IR LOOP SHOWS SOME HIGH AC MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN ASSOCIATE WITH SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AS NOTED ON THE 300K SURFACE. THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD TO AFFECT THE CWA TODAY AND HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. HOWEVER 850 MB TEMPS WARM 4 DEGREES TODAY AND EVEN WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE MID 40S. ANTICIPATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD TO COVER TO BREAK UP THOUGH AS MODELS SHOW UPPER CONFLUENCE INCREASING TODAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER TO BE REINFORCED THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS CURRENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THOUGH. COMBINATION OF AT LEAST EVENING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS ONLY AROUND 30 AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...

MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE ALSO ON THE INCREASE AS A RESULT. LOTS OF ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SATELLITE/AIRCRAFT ESTIMATES INDICATE A 180 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) OFF THE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE 00Z GFS INITIALIZATION SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT THIS JET. THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST REALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP BY LATE THURSDAY...AS THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC ENERGY/SHORTWAVES. ALTHOUGH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER ARIZONA MAY NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...STILL CONCERNS FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET (140+ KNOTS) FRIDAY MORNING...PER 12Z GFS. THE 00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...WHILE THE 00Z UKMET IS ALSO INDICATING A STRONG UPPER WAVE TRACKING THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT MUCH FASTER (00Z FRIDAY). MEANWHILE...THE 00Z EUROPEAN INDICATES A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AT BEST MOVING THROUGH...BUT BRINGS THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW FARTHEST NORTH...IMPACTING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER LAKE ERIE. UNFORTUNATELY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT A HUGE HELP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS ABOUT HALF ARE DRY OR BASICALLY DRY (A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS) WITH THE OTHER HALF INDICATING AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH QPF TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. WITH ALL THAT INFORMATION...PLANNING ON CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SUPPORT/AGREEMENT AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL ABOUND WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON MAXES. WE HAVE A 40 POP GOING AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE AT THIS TIME WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S...WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...THE TREND OF THE FROPA IS A LITTLE FASTER BASED ON THE 00Z GFS/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN GLOBAL. WILL ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. MAXES SHOULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421 UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSS AVIATION.....DRC LONG TERM....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).