AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 26 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COASTAL EDDY AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE BEACHES. MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WILL BE CLEAR AND WARM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LATE MORNING MDCRS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAD
LOWERED TO AROUND 2000 FEET FROM THIS MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE A LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE TO THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
DESERTS. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN BACK TO AROUND 2500 FEET
TONIGHT THEN LOWER AGAIN ON SUNDAY. STRATUS SHOULD PUSH BACK INLAND
OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGING OVER THE INLAND WEST WITH WEAK
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. MODELS
INDICATE THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS
IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS IN HANDLING THE TROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK. IT STILL SHOWS A WEAK CUT OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEAK BUT THE 12Z GFS INDICATE THIS LOW WILL
DUMBELL AROUND ANOTHER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A LOW
REMAINING ALONG OR OFF THE COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SECOND LOW
THEN SWINGS NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AS
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST. STILL LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS PULLING BACK TO THE COASTLINE DURING
THE MORNING AND THEN PUSHING BACK INLAND DURING THE EVENINGS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEY AREAS. MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
262010Z...MARINE LAYER CLEARED TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID AND LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON STRATUS LAYER HAD ALREADY TURNED
AROUND AND WAS MOVING BACK INLAND AGAIN. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN COASTAL SLOPES BY THIS EVENING WITH TOPS
GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FEET AND BASES AROUND 1200 TO 1500 FEET.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH CLEARING AGAIN TO NEAR THE COAST
BY MID AND LATE MORNING 17Z-18Z WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING AT THE
COAST. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INLAND ABOUT 21-23Z SUNDAY.
VFR VIS LOCALLY MVFR IN HAZE. WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCALLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HORTON
AVIATION...ECC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
840 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING
WILL BE REPLACED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LOWER THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING WARMER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. ON
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING.
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY/MONDAY...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA/SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. MARINE LAYER WAS 2500-2700
FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. STRATUS HAD SPREAD ACROSS INLAND EMPIRE TO
THE FOOTHILLS BUT CLOUD LAYER THERE WAS ONLY 300-500 FEET SO
CLEARING OVER INLAND EMPIRE/SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS SHOULD
BE COMPLETED BY 0930 PDT. HOWEVER COASTAL REGIONS WILL CLEAR LATER
THAN YESTERDAY...CLOSER TO 1330 PDT...OWING TO NOT ONLY THICKER CLOUD
LAYER...1000 FEET...BUT ALSO A STRONGER INVERSION...10 DEGREES
CELSIUS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS MARINE
LAYER WILL LOWER TO 1900 FEET SATURDAY AND 1300 FEET SUNDAY BUT THE
INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN BY 1-2 DEG CELSIUS EACH DAY...MAKING
COASTAL CLEARING LATER AND LESS LIKELY. REMAINDER OF AREA...ASIDE
FROM A FEW AFTERNON CUMULUS SATURDAY AND THIN CIRROSTRATUS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM A FEW DEGREES FAHRENHEIT EACH
DAY. ON MONDAY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INLAND AREAS BUT THE COASTS
COULD CLEAR BY NOON...BASED ON THE SIMILAR MARINE LAYER DEPTH BUT
THE WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ERODED BY
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH MOVING
INLAND TO THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG RANGE...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GFS MODEL HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...LONG RANGE PROGS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. THE GFS HAS A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST TOWARD A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. WILL GO WITH ECMWF AND A CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST
FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE. EXPECT CLEAR...WARM DAYS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND VARYING DEGREES OF COASTAL CLOUDS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
251500Z...12Z NKX SOUNDING...MORNING MDCRS SOUNDINGS AND TOP REPORTS
INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 2500 FEET. STRATUS WITH
BASES AROUND 1800 FEET MSL SHOULD PULL BACK TO NEAR THE COAST BY
18Z. AIRPORTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LIKELY TO STAY BROKEN WITH
ONLY BRIEF SCATTERED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS SHOULD PUSH
BACK INLAND DURING THE EVENING REACHING THE INLAND VALLEYS BY
MIDNIGHT.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH WEEKEND...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED BY SUNDAY OVER MOUNTAINS WITH 10
HOUR DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 10 PERCENT AND MARGINAL TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF HUMIDITY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
AVIATION/MARINE.......HORTON
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2007
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MARINE LAYER REGIME WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION
BASED AROUND 2000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE SHOWING
STRATUS/FOG BLANKETING MOST COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. 00Z GFS/WRF
INDICATE ONLY MINOR SYNOPTIC FLUCUATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AS H5
HEIGHTS CHANGE LITTLE AND MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE. SO...WILL EXPECT VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS/FOG INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...
CLEARING TO THE BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE STRATUS/FOG SHOW A MORE STUBBORN SIDE WITH
LIMITED CLEARING. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP MORE OPTIMISTIC
CLEARING TO THE BEACHES THINKING. AS FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS...DAILY
VARIATIONS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY...BUT NOTHING EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
00Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...INDICATING
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO
A WEAK UPPER LOW PROGGED TO ROTATE NORTH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. OVERALL...THE EFFECTS UPON THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL
AS GOOD ONSHORE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. SO...WILL
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND FOG AND NEAR
PERSISTENT TEMPS. JUST A CONTINUATION OF THE BLAND MARINE LAYER
REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION...25/1000Z
...WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY...
$$
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BRUNO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
715 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007
.DISCUSSION...
430 PM CDT
FORCAST FOCUS IN ON WARMFRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
COLD FRONT TO MOVE BACK THROUGH FA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN...AND
RETURN OF BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AGAIN LATE MON.
STRONG MID-UPPER LOW OVER EXTREME NE ND WITH SFC LOW IN NW MN.
CIRCULATION MOVING ENE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA-ONTARIO BORDER
AND FORECAST TO REACH NORTH CETRAL SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z SUN.
APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS LIFTED THE WARM FRONT TO NEAR THE WI BORDER
LATE BY MID AFTERNOON. TSRA HAVE INCREASED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND APPROACH OF MID TROF. EXPECT ACTIVITY ACROSS FA TO WANE
DURG THE EARLY PART OF THE EVE AS THE TROF PASSES BY. HOWEVER WITH
COLD FRONT LAGGING...EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NW AND N CENTRAL IL.
CONTINUED THREAT OF SHRA AND TSRA INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA AS SLOW MOVING FRONT GRADUALLY
SETTLES SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL BY SUN EVE.
THIS BOUNDARY STARTS TO MIGRATE BATH NORTHWARD ON MON AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OFF THE B.C.COAST...CROSSES THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
ROCKIES. MODELS MAINTAIN CLOSED MID-UPPER CIRCULATION THRU TUE WITH
SLOW E MOVEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRARIE. SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS MEANS WARM FRONT WILL NOT START TO ACCELERATE AND MOVE BACK
N THRU FA UNTIL MON NIGHT WITH CHC OF TSRA CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUN NIGHT AND MON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
FLO OVERUNNING THE BOUNDARY REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THE MO VALLEY AND
UPPER MS VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS S CENTRAL CANANDA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE AND WED. CHC OF TSRA WILL
PERSIST AS WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE ONCE WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK N MON
NIGHT AND MID-UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM W TUE AND WED. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AS MODELS POSITION UPPER
TROF AXIS FROM UPPER MIDWEST BACK INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AT 12Z THU.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY PART OF TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.
THE COLD FRONT IN MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS BY 12 UTC SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CEILINGS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT BUT WE EXPECT THOSE
CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN NOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THEM HOWEVER
FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES. ANOTHER BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
THE REGION AROUND 04 UTC. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THE WRF ARW MODEL SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FORECAST CROSS SECTION.
THE ACARS SOUNDING FROM ORD SHOWS THE COOL AIR NEAR AND AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE WRF ARW
SHOWS THE AIR MASS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE BY 06 UTC. WE EXPECT WEST
WIND AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE DISCUSSION REGARDING 3 PM FORECAST...
A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PASSING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN FORCE 1 RANGE THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT EXCEPT A FEW HOURS OF WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. COLD STABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE
LAKE SURFACE COMBINED WILL KEEP WAVES GENERALLY BELOW 4 FT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.
MERZLOCK
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1014 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007
.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LATE MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS
INCREASED DEWPOINTS ALL OF THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
LAPS INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FURTHERMORE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN THE WEST IS CAUSING CUMULUS
CLOUDS TO BUILD RAPIDLY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DELIVER 1 OR 2
DEGREES OF COOLING ALOFT TODAY...SO THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS ON TARGET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
305 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007...SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A 1007MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER SE AZ/SW NM WITH SE WINDS
ADVECTING PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NW INTO MUCH OF NM. LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER UT/CO SHEARING SE INTO
NORTHERN NM WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER W TX MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.
400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND PLOTS SHOWS THE REAR SECTION OF A 60-80 KNOT
JET AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SLOWLY NE ACROSS S CO/N NM. RADAR
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS/ STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE E PLAINS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
OVER THE N MTNS AS THE UPPER JET EXITS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE LULL
IN PRECIP ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING AND ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY AT BEST IN THE E PLAINS.
LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA FOR THIS
MORNING.
00Z/06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WHILE SFC FEATURES AND PRECIP PATTERNS ARE MUCH HARDER TO NAIL DOWN.
GIVEN CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM DECIDED TO
NUDGE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MODEST
AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND MOVE ENE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. NAM ADVERTISES A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -3C...LAPSE RATES BTWN 7 AND 8C/KM...AND PWATS
BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH. STEERING CURRENTS BRING COMPLEX INTO THE
KABQ AND KSAF REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCALES.
MODEL GUIDANCE THEN COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE E PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY HOWEVER COVERAGE
APPEARS LIMITED. DRYING TREND CONTINUES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 79 45 83 47 / 20 10 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 78 39 82 40 / 30 10 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 77 42 81 41 / 30 20 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 86 49 88 48 / 10 20 10 10
CHAMA........................... 64 33 72 32 / 50 20 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 70 44 75 42 / 40 50 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 56 36 64 35 / 60 50 20 10
TAOS............................ 71 40 76 38 / 40 50 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 71 45 77 46 / 50 60 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 46 79 46 / 40 60 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 77 50 84 51 / 30 50 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 57 82 57 / 30 60 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 56 84 56 / 30 60 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 53 79 57 / 40 60 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 55 83 56 / 30 50 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 82 58 84 56 / 30 50 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 73 47 76 48 / 60 60 20 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 48 80 46 / 50 60 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 78 56 78 56 / 30 50 30 20
RUIDOSO......................... 67 48 70 52 / 60 60 30 30
RATON........................... 73 43 75 44 / 30 50 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 44 74 43 / 30 40 20 10
ROY............................. 73 52 74 52 / 30 40 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 75 53 76 54 / 40 30 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 56 84 56 / 30 60 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 76 58 83 58 / 30 40 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 77 58 84 58 / 30 30 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 73 56 79 58 / 40 30 30 20
PORTALES........................ 71 55 80 57 / 40 30 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 75 57 83 59 / 30 40 30 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A 1007MB LOW PRES CENTER
OVER SE AZ/SW NM WITH SE WINDS ADVECTING PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NW INTO MUCH OF NM. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
OVER UT/CO SHEARING SE INTO NORTHERN NM WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER W TX MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND PLOTS SHOWS
THE REAR SECTION OF A 60-80 KNOT JET AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE EXITING
SLOWLY NE ACROSS S CO/N NM. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP OVER THE E PLAINS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING OVER THE N MTNS AS THE UPPER JET EXITS THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY AT BEST IN
THE E PLAINS. LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS MUCH OF
CWA FOR THIS MORNING.
00Z/06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WHILE SFC FEATURES AND PRECIP PATTERNS ARE MUCH HARDER TO NAIL DOWN.
GIVEN CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM DECIDED TO
NUDGE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MODEST
AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND MOVE ENE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. NAM ADVERTISES A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -3C...LAPSE RATES BTWN 7 AND 8C/KM...AND PWATS
BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH. STEERING CURRENTS BRING COMPLEX INTO THE
KABQ AND KSAF REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCALES.
MODEL GUIDANCE THEN COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE E PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY HOWEVER COVERAGE
APPEARS LIMITED. DRYING TREND CONTINUES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 79 45 83 47 / 20 10 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 78 39 82 40 / 30 10 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 77 42 81 41 / 30 20 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 86 49 88 48 / 10 20 10 10
CHAMA........................... 64 33 72 32 / 50 20 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 70 44 75 42 / 40 50 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 56 36 64 35 / 60 50 20 10
TAOS............................ 71 40 76 38 / 40 50 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 71 45 77 46 / 50 60 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 46 79 46 / 40 60 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 77 50 84 51 / 30 50 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 57 82 57 / 30 60 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 56 84 56 / 30 60 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 53 79 57 / 40 60 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 55 83 56 / 30 50 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 82 58 84 56 / 30 50 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 73 47 76 48 / 60 60 20 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 48 80 46 / 50 60 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 78 56 78 56 / 30 50 30 20
RUIDOSO......................... 67 48 70 52 / 60 60 30 30
RATON........................... 73 43 75 44 / 30 50 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 44 74 43 / 30 40 20 10
ROY............................. 73 52 74 52 / 30 40 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 75 53 76 54 / 40 30 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 56 84 56 / 30 60 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 76 58 83 58 / 30 40 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 77 58 84 58 / 30 30 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 73 56 79 58 / 40 30 30 20
PORTALES........................ 71 55 80 57 / 40 30 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 75 57 83 59 / 30 40 30 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1004 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONSIST OF A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY AND A STRONGER THREAT WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LOW POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SUMMERLIKE
WEEK SHAPING UP AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST BRINGING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COMPLEX LOW
WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LATE SUNDAY. WARM FRONT
SHOULD CROSS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT FOLLOWING SUNDAY EVENING. JUDGING FROM
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION...SO THIS HAS BEEN LEFT ALONE IN THE JUST-ISSUED
LATE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE ALSO LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTACT
DESPITE A LESSENING TREND IN UPSTREAM LIGHTNING/PCPN INTENSITY THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE 18Z NAM/GFS AND NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z
NAM STILL SHOW ACTIVITY PICKING UP ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING...AND 850 MB-BASED LI`S ARE
STILL LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION. /AS ALWAYS...NEVER
TRUST A WARM FRONT./ WITH THE UPDATE...I HAVE MERELY TWEAKED THE
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVENING WORDING AND KEEP
THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THINGS ARE
JUST AS THEY WERE A FEW HOURS AGO.
AS FOR SUNDAY...ONCE THE WARM FRONT GOES BY IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS IF IT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING...THERE REMAINS CONCERN
OVER A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON...WITH THE
KICKER POSSIBLY BEING ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH SHOULD SET
UP SOUTH AND EAST OF BUFFALO...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA WITH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIKELY POPS THUS STILL LOOK
GOOD FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WE ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. DECENT 40-50 KT LOW
LEVEL (5K FT) JET WILL PUSH INTO REGION DURING AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING HOWEVER DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT IF WE DO BREAK OUT FOR A FEW HOURS...TEMPS MAY NUDGE
INTO L80S AND WITH L60S DEW PTS COULD SEE CAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...ENOUGH FOR SOME CONCERN. THIS WOULD BE HIGHEST S AND E OF
BUFFALO AND ON ACROSS GEN VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES AND ACROSS NIAG
PENINSULA AND LOWEST AS USUAL IN BUF METRO`S SHADOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLITE THREAT IN HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUN NT AS FRONT SLOWLY PULLS SOUTH AND
EAST...WILL DROP POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
NIGHT WEARS ON. MONDAY WILL TURN SUNNY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND
COOLER WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 6-8C SUPPORTING SEASONABLE NEAR 70
READINGS FOR THE HOLIDAY.
STRONG RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE LAKES AND SETTLES RIGHT OVER US BY
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A NEAR PERFECT DAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND MID
70S TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OFF THE COAST
AND BRINGS A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM IN GRIDS WEDNESDAY FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST DUE TO WARM
FRONT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE OUT OF NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. DAY
SHLD START OUT MSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOME PTLY SUNNY IN AFTN. 850S WARM
TO +12 TO +14 WHICH SHLD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
THURSDAY, WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. 06Z GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND WITH
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION IT JUSTIFIES LOW CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM.
ON FRIDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE BIG UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND TO LK
ONTARIO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY IN THE
MORNING WILL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE SLGT CHANCE SHWR/TSTM
DUE TO UPPER LOW. TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND
NR THE NORMS OF LOWER 70S SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR PITTSBURGH. AS THIS WARM FRONT WORKS ITS
WAY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ACCOMPANY IT
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LOWER CIGS TO NEAR 35 HUNDRED FEET BUT VISIBILITIES WILL BE
BRIEFLY MVFR OR IFR.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING DURING SUNDAY. FAIR
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/SFM
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP/SAGE
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONSIST OF A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY AND A STRONGER THREAT WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LOW POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SUMMERLIKE
WEEK SHAPING UP AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST BRINGING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DISSIPATED. WITH PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INDICATE CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS.
MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COMPLEX
LOW WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LATE SUNDAY. WARM FRONT
SHOULD CROSS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD FRONT
FOLLOWING SUNDAY EVENING. 18Z SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TOGETHER IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FROPA...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION...AND BOTH MODELS TRENDING
A LITTLE FASTER OVERALL. GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL ACTIVITY SPREADING
ACROSS NE OHIO AND MUCH OF MI AT THIS TIME...FEEL THAT THIS MORE
AGGRESSIVE/FASTER TREND IS REASONABLE...AND MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE
SLOW GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL CONVECTION ALREADY IS. THUS...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
BRING THE WARM FRONTAL PCPN THROUGH THE AREA SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND THE STRENGTH OF SOME OF THE ECHOES SEEN
UPSTREAM...HAVE ALSO OPTED TO RE-INTRODUCE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
AS FOR SUNDAY...ONCE THE WARM FRONT GOES BY IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS IF IT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING...THERE REMAINS CONCERN
OVER A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON...WITH THE
KICKER POSSIBLY BEING ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH SHOULD SET
UP SOUTH AND EAST OF BUFFALO...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA WITH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIKELY POPS THUS STILL LOOK
GOOD FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE MOVED UP
THE TIMING OF THESE A FEW HOURS FROM CONTINUITY BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS.
WE ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. DECENT 40-50 KT LOW
LEVEL (5K FT) JET WILL PUSH INTO REGION DURING AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING HOWEVER DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT IF WE DO BREAK OUT FOR A FEW HOURS...TEMPS MAY NUDGE
INTO L80S AND WITH L60S DEW PTS COULD SEE CAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...ENOUGH FOR SOME CONCERN. THIS WOULD BE HIGHEST S AND E OF
BUFFALO AND ON ACROSS GEN VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES AND ACROSS NIAG
PENINSULA AND LOWEST AS USUAL IN BUF METRO`S SHADOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLITE THREAT IN HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUN NT AS FRONT SLOWLY PULLS SOUTH AND
EAST...WILL DROP POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
NIGHT WEARS ON. MONDAY WILL TURN SUNNY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND
COOLER WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 6-8C SUPPORTING SEASONABLE NEAR 70
READINGS FOR THE HOLIDAY.
STRONG RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE LAKES AND SETTLES RIGHT OVER US BY
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A NEAR PERFECT DAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND MID
70S TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OFF THE COAST
AND BRINGS A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM IN GRIDS WEDNESDAY FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST DUE TO WARM
FRONT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE OUT OF NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. DAY
SHLD START OUT MSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOME PTLY SUNNY IN AFTN. 850S WARM
TO +12 TO +14 WHICH SHLD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
THURSDAY, WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. 06Z GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND WITH
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION IT JUSTIFIES LOW CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM.
ON FRIDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE BIG UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND TO LK
ONTARIO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY IN THE
MORNING WILL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE SLGT CHANCE SHWR/TSTM
DUE TO UPPER LOW. TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND
NR THE NORMS OF LOWER 70S SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR PITTSBURGH. AS THIS WARM FRONT WORKS ITS
WAY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ACCOMPANY IT
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LOWER CIGS TO NEAR 35 HUNDRED FEET BUT VISIBILITIES WILL BE
BRIEFLY MVFR OR IFR.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING DURING SUNDAY. FAIR
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/SFM
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP/SAGE
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
731 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONSIST OF A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY AND A STRONGER THREAT WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LOW POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SUMMERLIKE
WEEK SHAPING UP AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST BRINGING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DISSIPATED. WITH PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INDICATE CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS.
MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COMPLEX
LOW WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LATE SUNDAY. WARM FRONT
SHOULD CROSS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD FRONT
FOLLOWING SUNDAY EVENING. 18Z SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TOGETHER IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FROPA...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION...AND BOTH MODELS TRENDING
A LITTLE FASTER OVERALL. GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL ACTIVITY SPREADING
ACROSS NE OHIO AND MUCH OF MI AT THIS TIME...FEEL THAT THIS MORE
AGGRESSIVE/FASTER TREND IS REASONABLE...AND MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE
SLOW GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL CONVECTION ALREADY IS. THUS...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
BRING THE WARM FRONTAL PCPN THROUGH THE AREA SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND THE STRENGTH OF SOME OF THE ECHOES SEEN
UPSTREAM...HAVE ALSO OPTED TO RE-INTRODUCE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
AS FOR SUNDAY...ONCE THE WARM FRONT GOES BY IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA
WILL GET INTO A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS IF IT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING...THERE REMAINS CONCERN
OVER A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON...WITH THE
KICKER POSSIBLY BEING ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH SHOULD SET
UP SOUTH AND EAST OF BUFFALO...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA WITH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIKELY POPS THUS STILL LOOK
GOOD FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE MOVED UP
THE TIMING OF THESE A FEW HOURS FROM CONTINUITY BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS.
WE ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. DECENT 40-50 KT LOW
LEVEL (5K FT) JET WILL PUSH INTO REGION DURING AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING HOWEVER DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT IF WE DO BREAK OUT FOR A FEW HOURS...TEMPS MAY NUDGE
INTO L80S AND WITH L60S DEW PTS COULD SEE CAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...ENOUGH FOR SOME CONCERN. THIS WOULD BE HIGHEST S AND E OF
BUFFALO AND ON ACROSS GEN VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES AND ACROSS NIAG
PENINSULA AND LOWEST AS USUAL IN BUF METRO`S SHADOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLITE THREAT IN HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUN NT AS FRONT SLOWLY PULLS SOUTH AND
EAST...WILL DROP POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
NIGHT WEARS ON. MONDAY WILL TURN SUNNY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND
COOLER WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 6-8C SUPPORTING SEASONABLE NEAR 70
READINGS FOR THE HOLIDAY.
STRONG RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE LAKES AND SETTLES RIGHT OVER US BY
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A NEAR PERFECT DAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND MID
70S TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OFF THE COAST
AND BRINGS A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM IN GRIDS WEDNESDAY FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST DUE TO WARM
FRONT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE OUT OF NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. DAY
SHLD START OUT MSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOME PTLY SUNNY IN AFTN. 850S WARM
TO +12 TO +14 WHICH SHLD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
THURSDAY, WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. 06Z GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND WITH
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION IT JUSTIFIES LOW CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM.
ON FRIDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE BIG UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND TO LK
ONTARIO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY IN THE
MORNING WILL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE SLGT CHANCE SHWR/TSTM
DUE TO UPPER LOW. TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND
NR THE NORMS OF LOWER 70S SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTH OF FRONTAL BNDRY
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE IS MOVING EAST. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SHOULDN`T
RESULT IN ANY AVIATION RESTRICTIONS. IT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY GET AS
FAR EAST AS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE AREA SHLD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRNT
TONIGHT. ONE MODEL NAM/WRF SHOWS QUITE A BIT MORE SHWR ACTIVITY
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BNDRY THAN THE GFS. AT PRESENT TIME LOWERED
CONDITIONS TO THE MVFR RANGE IN SHWRS LTR TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND
TWD MRNG TWD THE FINGER LKS REGION. AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE
THERE SHLD BE A BREAK IN THE MORNING AFT 12Z IN THE WEST AND BY 15Z
FINGER LKS AREA.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING DURING SUNDAY. FAIR
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/SFM
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE MID PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS WILL CONSIST OF A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY AND A STRONGER THREAT WITH A COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LOW POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER SUMMERLIKE WEEK SHAPING UP AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST
BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DID INDEED SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING AND USHERED IN DRIER AIR...BUT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HUNG
BACK OVER MICHIANA AND INDUCED A RATHER POTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
WHICH RACED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND SW ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND
HAS HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO REACH FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SPRINKLES HAVE MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
BUF AREA BUT SOME DRENCHING RAIN OF UP TO HALF INCH ACROSS CHAUT
COUNTY BTWN NOON AND 2 PM. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN WRN
NY AS IT DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS PA WITH DECENT
CONVECTION NOW. STILL...WITH NEED TO CARRY AT LEAST CHC POPS AS
FAR EAST AS GEN VLY AND FINGER LAKES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TRAILING EDGE NEAR LONDON SHOULD REACH NIAG RIVER BY 5-6 PM SO
THREAT SHOULD END THEN WITH A MAINLY DRY EVENING THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COMPLEX LOW WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST LATE SUNDAY. WARM FRONT SHOULD CROSS AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER WIDELY IN THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH WARM FROPA...NAM QUITE AGGRESSIVE
WHILE GFS NOT SO. NOTE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OUT IN CHICAGOLAND ATTM
BUT THIS TENDING TO LIFT MORE NORTH THAN EAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH PREV TREND OF A MAINLY DRY EVENING...THEN BRING
INCREASING POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WARM FRONT...UP TO LIKELY
TOWARD MORNING IN WEST AND CHC E OF LK ONTARIO CLOSE TO 12Z.
SUNDAY`S FORECAST IS A DIFFICULT CALL IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS. IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL ALL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH MOST AREAS DRYING OUT AFTER EARLY
SHOWERS...BUT THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. ACTUAL FRONT DOES
NOT PASS THROUGH UNTIL EVENING BUT SOME CONCERN OVER A PREFRONTAL
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON...WITH THE KICKER POSSIBLY
BEING ALONG THE LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH SHOULD SET UP S AND E
OF BUF AND POSSIBLY NIAG PENINSULA WITH BRISK SW FLOW. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WE ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. DECENT 40-50 KT LOW
LEVEL (5K FT) JET WILL PUSH INTO REGION DURING AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING HOWEVER DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT IF WE DO BREAK OUT FOR A FEW HOURS...TEMPS MAY NUDGE
INTO L80S AND WITH L60S DEW PTS COULD SEE CAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...ENOUGH FOR SOME CONCERN. THIS WOULD BE HIGHEST S AND E OF
BUFFALO AND ON ACROSS GEN VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES AND ACROSS NIAG
PENINSULA AND LOWEST AS USUAL IN BUF METRO`S SHADOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLITE THREAT IN HWO.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUN NT AS FRONT SLOWLY PULLS SOUTH AND
EAST...WILL DROP POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHC FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
NIGHT WEARS ON. MONDAY WILL TURN SUNNY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND
COOLER WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 6-8C SUPPORTING SEASONABLE NEAR 70
READINGS FOR THE HOLIDAY.
STRONG RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE LAKES AND SETTLES RIGHT OVER US BY
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A NEAR PERFECT DAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND MID
70S TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OFF THE COAST
AND BRINGS A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM IN GRIDS WEDNESDAY FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST DUE TO WARM
FRONT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE OUT OF NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. DAY
SHLD START OUT MSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOME PTLY SUNNY IN AFTN. 850S WARM
TO +12 TO +14 WHICH SHLD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
THURSDAY, WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. 06Z GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND WITH
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION IT JUSTIFIES LOW CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM.
ON FRIDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE BIG UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND TO LK
ONTARIO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY IN THE
MORNING WILL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE SLGT CHANCE SHWR/TSTM
DUE TO UPPER LOW. TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND
NR THE NORMS OF LOWER 70S SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTH OF FRONTAL BNDRY
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE IS MOVING EAST. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SHOULDN`T
RESULT IN ANY AVIATION RESTRICTIONS. IT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY GET AS
FAR EAST AS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE AREA SHLD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRNT
TONIGHT. ONE MODEL NAM/WRF SHOWS QUITE A BIT MORE SHWR ACTIVITY
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BNDRY THAN THE GFS. AT PRESENT TIME LOWERED
CONDITIONS TO THE MVFR RANGE IN SHWRS LTR TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND
TWD MRNG TWD THE FINGER LKS REGION. AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE
THERE SHLD BE A BREAK IN THE MORNING AFT 12Z IN THE WEST AND BY 15Z
FINGER LKS AREA.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING DURING SUNDAY. FAIR
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAY HAS BEEN A VERY PLEASANT MONTH IN WESTERN NEW YORK. SUNSHINE
AND LACK OF RAIN HAVE BEEN MOST NOTABLE. THROUGH THE 25TH...
BUFFALO HAS HAD 82 PERCENT OF THE POSSIBLE SUNSHINE...WITH 22 OF
THE 25 DAYS BEING AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE JULY
1959 SINCE BUF HAS HAD A MONTH WITH OVER 80 PCT SUN. IN
ROCHESTER...THE 0.24 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WOULD MAKE IT THE
DRIEST MAY EVER (TO 0.36 IN 1977). CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PUT A
DENT INTO THESE NUMBERS ON SUNDAY...BUT THE LAST FOUR DAYS OF THE
MONTH SHOULD AGAIN SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...SFM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
206 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
HAS STALLED OVER PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING AND HAVE RACED EAST AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG ITS
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COOLER DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
ABOUT 250-260 THOUGH...AND MORE CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. SOLID AREA OF RAIN
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTORMS HAS BEEN RACING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. IT IS WEAKENING...BUT
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO CHAUT
COUNTY BY 17Z AND WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS ALL THE WAY TO GEN
VALLEY FOR A TIME MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHORT TERM CHANGES. MAIN
PACKAGE OUT AROUND 3 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO RESPOND TO EJECTING NORTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL WEAK
LEAD SHORTWAVES WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HAVE BROUGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY
BY LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF ROC...TAPERING QUICKLY TO LOW
CHANCE EAST OF ROC AND DRY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ON SUNDAY WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED SURGE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LIKELY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS. SHOULD SEE A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR
THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE TO LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONGER PUSH OF MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES AS FRONTAL ZONE HANGS UP
UNTIL STRONGER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO.
THERE STILL REMAINS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT RISK.
THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED SUNSHINE/DESTABILIZATION IN A
CLOUD CONTAMINATED WARM SECTOR. GREATEST DESTABILIZATION AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF PHASE...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS ONTARIO. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MODEST
500-1000J/KG MLCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND SUFFICIENT
35-40 KNOT MID LEVEL FLOW FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...BUT PATTERN
DOES NOT FAVOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE. PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE LOCAL
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY STILL MAY SEE A SHOWER LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE SPREADING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OFF THE COAST
AND BRINGS A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM IN GRIDS WEDNESDAY FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST DUE TO WARM
FRONT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE OUT OF NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. DAY
SHLD START OUT MSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOME PTLY SUNNY IN AFTN. 850S WARM
TO +12 TO +14 WHICH SHLD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
THURSDAY, WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. 06Z GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND WITH
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION IT JUSTIFIES LOW CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM.
ON FRIDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE BIG UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND TO LK
ONTARIO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY IN THE
MORNING WILL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE SLGT CHANCE SHWR/TSTM
DUE TO UPPER LOW. TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND
NR THE NORMS OF LOWER 70S SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTH OF FRONTAL BNDRY
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE IS MOVING EAST. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SHOULDN`T
RESULT IN ANY AVIATION RESTRICTIONS. IT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY GET AS
FAR EAST AS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE AREA SHLD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRNT
TONIGHT. ONE MODEL NAM/WRF SHOWS QUITE A BIT MORE SHWR ACTIVITY
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BNDRY THAN THE GFS. AT PRESENT TIME LOWERED
CONDITIONS TO THE MVFR RANGE IN SHWRS LTR TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND
TWD MRNG TWD THE FINGER LKS REGION. AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE
THERE SHLD BE A BREAK IN THE MORNING AFT 12Z IN THE WEST AND BY 15Z
FINGER LKS AREA.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING DURING SUNDAY. FAIR
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
135 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
HAS STALLED OVER PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING AND HAVE RACED EAST AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG ITS
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COOLER DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
ABOUT 250-260 THOUGH...AND MORE CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. SOLID AREA OF RAIN
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTORMS HAS BEEN RACING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. IT IS WEAKENING...BUT
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO CHAUT
COUNTY BY 17Z AND WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS ALL THE WAY TO GEN
VALLEY FOR A TIME MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHORT TERM CHANGES. MAIN
PACKAGE OUT AROUND 3 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO RESPOND TO EJECTING NORTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL WEAK
LEAD SHORTWAVES WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HAVE BROUGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY
BY LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF ROC...TAPERING QUICKLY TO LOW
CHANCE EAST OF ROC AND DRY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ON SUNDAY WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED SURGE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LIKELY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS. SHOULD SEE A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK TO CHANCE FOR
THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE TO LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONGER PUSH OF MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES AS FRONTAL ZONE HANGS UP
UNTIL STRONGER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO.
THERE STILL REMAINS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT RISK.
THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED SUNSHINE/DESTABILIZATION IN A
CLOUD CONTAMINATED WARM SECTOR. GREATEST DESTABILIZATION AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF PHASE...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS ONTARIO. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MODEST
500-1000J/KG MLCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND SUFFICIENT
35-40 KNOT MID LEVEL FLOW FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...BUT PATTERN
DOES NOT FAVOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE. PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE LOCAL
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY STILL MAY SEE A SHOWER LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE SPREADING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OFF THE COAST
AND BRINGS A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM IN GRIDS WEDNESDAY FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST DUE TO WARM
FRONT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE OUT OF NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. DAY
SHLD START OUT MSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOME PTLY SUNNY IN AFTN. 850S WARM
TO +12 TO +14 WHICH SHLD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
THURSDAY, WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. 06Z GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND WITH
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION IT JUSTIFIES LOW CHANCE
SHWR/TSTM.
ON FRIDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE BIG UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND TO LK
ONTARIO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY IN THE
MORNING WILL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE SLGT CHANCE SHWR/TSTM
DUE TO UPPER LOW. TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND
NR THE NORMS OF LOWER 70S SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE FRONT SHOULD EASE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL WORK EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO BUT TREND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING THE WESTERN TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AT THIS TIME
DUE TO VERY LOW CHANCES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING DURING SUNDAY. FAIR
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1214 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM
AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...BUT
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO NEAR DETROIT AND
INDIANAPOLIS AT 15Z WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION HAS ALREADY BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE
SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG HAVE BCOME ESTABLISHED. THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN PRODUCED COURTESY OF A CLOUD FREE SKY...WHICH IS
NOW STARTING TO FILL WITH MODERATE-TOWERING CU TO THE EAST OF JHW
AND SOUTHEAST OF DSV. THE CAPES ARE SURGING TO HIGHER LEVELS THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...PARTLY DUE TO DEW POINTS BEING 2-4 DEG F
HIGHER THAN MODELED. GIVEN AN ISODROSOTHERMAL ANALYSES...
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS (LOW 60S) FOUND OVER CENT/WRN PA WILL
BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING WAS UNIMPRESSIVE WHEN IT CAME TO LOOKING AT
SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...AS A UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS DEPICTED WITH LITTLE SPEED SHEAR. THE
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
BOUNDARY WHERE SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN AND
BUILD STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL CAN BE ADDED TO THE THREAT OF HIGHLY
LOCALIZED (ISOLATED) HIGH WIND GUSTS FOUND UNDER THE CORES OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTION. AS THE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARIES
THOUGH...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS SHEAR PARAMETERS BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE.
AS OF 1530Z...THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE WAS APPARENT ON VIS IMARGERY
BUT NOT ON RADAR. THE BOUNDARY...AS EXPECTED...STRETCHED FROM
ABOUT JHW NORTHEASTWARD TO WARSAW THEN NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE INITIAL
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS USUAL...THE BUF METRO
AREA WILL INITIALLY BE SHADOWED FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS
SHADOWING WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE MUCH OF THE IAG FRONTIER THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING...THE FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS THE
FORCAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUNCH THROUGH WHAT SHOULD
BE A RATHER STRONG LAKE BREEZE...WITH A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF
-SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR ANY GIVEN AREA.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE...SO WILL LEAVE CONTINUITY AND NOT CLEAR
THINGS OUT.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 70S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES
TO THE UPPER 80S/NR 90 IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...HIGH
TEMP RECORDS FOR TODAY WILL BE THREATENED IN ROC WHERE THE CURRENT
REC IS 88 SET IN 1904. THE REOCRD OF 86 FOR BUF SHOULD BE SAFE
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SNEAK IN LATER IN THE DAY. GFS ALONG
WITH MOST OF THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WET PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM
SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER DRIER AIR. MILD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW CENTER ALTHOUGH THREAT SHLD BE LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PASS FROM AROUND GEORGIAN BAY THURSDAY MORNING TO NEAR NORTHERN
MAINE FRIDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TRAILING SW TO
NEAR BFD. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF A TSTM JUST IN THE MRNG IN THE EAST
OTRW A CHANCE OF SHWRS WITH MSTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
FEW EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES. EXPECT VSBY
TO RISE INTO VFR RANGE BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
AND MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL JUST CARRY
A VCSH ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KROC
AND KJHW WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN
NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST FRONTAL STRATUS
REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...BUT MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE FROM STURGEON POINT DOWN TO RIPLEY WHICH
TENDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN NE FLOW. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE HERE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT
AGAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE SPRING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ003>008-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1144 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM
AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...BUT
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO NEAR DETROIT AND
INDIANAPOLIS AT 15Z WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION HAS ALREADY BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE
SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG HAVE BCOME ESTABLISHED. THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN PRODUCED COURTESY OF A CLOUD FREE SKY...WHICH IS
NOW STARTING TO FILL WITH MODERATE-TOWERING CU TO THE EAST OF JHW
AND SOUTHEAST OF DSV. THE CAPES ARE SURGING TO HIGHER LEVELS THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...PARTLY DUE TO DEW POINTS BEING 2-4 DEG F
HIGHER THAN MODELED. GIVEN AN ISODROSOTHERMAL ANALYSES...
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS (LOW 60S) FOUND OVER CENT/WRN PA WILL
BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING WAS UNIMPRESSIVE WHEN IT CAME TO LOOKING AT
SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...AS A UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS DEPICTED WITH LITTLE SPEED SHEAR. THE
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
BOUNDARY WHERE SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN AND
BUILD STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL CAN BE ADDED TO THE THREAT OF HIGHLY
LOCALIZED (ISOLATED) HIGH WIND GUSTS FOUND UNDER THE CORES OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTION. AS THE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARIES
THOUGH...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS SHEAR PARAMETERS BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE.
AS OF 1530Z...THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE WAS APPARENT ON VIS IMARGERY
BUT NOT ON RADAR. THE BOUNDARY...AS EXPECTED...STRETCHED FROM
ABOUT JHW NORTHEASTWARD TO WARSAW THEN NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE INITIAL
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS USUAL...THE BUF METRO
AREA WILL INITIALLY BE SHADOWED FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS
SHADOWING WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE MUCH OF THE IAG FRONTIER THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING...THE FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS THE
FORCAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUNCH THROUGH WHAT SHOULD
BE A RATHER STRONG LAKE BREEZE...WITH A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF
-SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR ANY GIVEN AREA.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE...SO WILL LEAVE CONTINUITY AND NOT CLEAR
THINGS OUT.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 70S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES
TO THE UPPER 80S/NR 90 IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...HIGH
TEMP RECORDS FOR TODAY WILL BE THREATENED IN ROC WHERE THE CURRENT
REC IS 88 SET IN 1904. THE REOCRD OF 86 FOR BUF SHOULD BE SAFE
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SNEAK IN LATER IN THE DAY. GFS ALONG
WITH MOST OF THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WET PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM
SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
FEW EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES. EXPECT VSBY
TO RISE INTO VFR RANGE BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
AND MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL JUST CARRY
A VCSH ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KROC
AND KJHW WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN
NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST FRONTAL STRATUS
REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...BUT MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE FROM STURGEON POINT DOWN TO RIPLEY WHICH
TENDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN NE FLOW. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE HERE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT
AGAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE SPRING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ003>008-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APB
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
956 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM
AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...BUT
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO NEAR DETROIT AND
INDIANAPOLIS AT 13Z WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE
COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.
THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE AND MORE
UNSTABLE AS A CLOUD FREE SKY WILL ALLOW FOR THE FULL EFFECTS OF A
STRENGTHENING LATE MAY SUN. SBCAPES ARE ALREADY OVER 500 J/KG
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...AND THESE
VALUES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY 18Z.
THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING REVEALS A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SPEED SHEAR. THIS
LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE NO REAL JET SUPPORT
EITHER... BUT THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LK ERIE. WHILE SERVING TO FOCUS CONVECTION AFTER
18Z...THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO CONTAIN ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO FORM ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN
THAT IF STRONGER CONVECTION FORMS...IT WOULD LIKELY INITIATE OVER
WYOMING/ SRN ERIE/CATTARAUGUS OR EASTERN MOST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
AFTER 18Z. AS USUAL...THE BUF METRO AREA WILL INITIALLY BE
SHADOWED FROM THE CONVECTION.
IN TERMS OF THE TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A RELATIVELY HIGH
FREEZING LEVEL (1.5K FT) WITH CAPES GENERALLY <1200 J/KG WILL
PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY
LOW LEVEL JETS TO ASSIST WITH WINDS EITHER...SO THIS WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UNDER THE CORES OF THE
STRONGER STORMS NEAR/ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING...THE FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS THE
FORCAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUNCH THROUGH WHAT SHOULD
BE A RATHER STRONG LAKE BREEZE...WITH A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF
-SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR ANY GIVEN AREA.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE...SO WILL LEAVE CONTINUITY AND NOT CLEAR
THINGS OUT.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 70S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES
TO THE UPPER 80S/NR 90 IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...HIGH
TEMP RECORDS FOR TODAY WILL BE THREATENED IN ROC WHERE THE CURRENT
REC IS 88 SET IN 1904. THE REOCRD OF 86 FOR BUF SHOULD BE SAFE
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SNEAK IN LATER IN THE DAY. GFS ALONG
WITH MOST OF THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WET PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM
SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
FEW EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES. EXPECT VSBY
TO RISE INTO VFR RANGE BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
AND MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL JUST CARRY
A VCSH ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KROC
AND KJHW WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN
NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST FRONTAL STRATUS
REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...BUT MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE FROM STURGEON POINT DOWN TO RIPLEY WHICH
TENDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN NE FLOW. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE HERE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT
AGAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE SPRING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ003>008-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APB
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
744 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM
AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...BUT
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL DEAMPLIFY TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP EJECTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY
WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
REGIONAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN THE MORNING BEING DRY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE WILL SBCAPES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SET UP A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE...SHADOWING THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO AREA
AND SETTING UP A SUFFICIENT FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND WITH A
BIT MORE HUMIDITY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY...BUT STILL RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GENERALLY
LOWER TO MID 80S LOOK REASONABLE... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. THE RECORD
HIGH OF 86 IN 1975 FOR BUFFALO LIKELY SAFE...BUT ROCHESTER`S RECORD
HIGH OF 88 IN 1904 THOUGH PROBABLY SAFE COULD BE APPROACHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
MAY SNEAK IN LATER IN THE DAY. GFS ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SREF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE
IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM
FRONTAL ZONE TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE INTO THE
WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY
GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
FEW EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES. EXPECT VSBY
TO RISE INTO VFR RANGE BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
AND MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL JUST CARRY
A VCSH ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KROC
AND KJHW WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN
NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST FRONTAL STRATUS
REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...BUT MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE FROM STURGEON POINT DOWN TO RIPLEY WHICH
TENDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN NE FLOW. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE HERE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT
AGAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE SPRING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ003>008-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APB
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM
AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...BUT
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL DEAMPLIFY TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP EJECTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY
WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
REGIONAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN THE MORNING BEING DRY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE WILL SBCAPES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SET UP A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE...SHADOWING THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO AREA
AND SETTING UP A SUFFICIENT FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND WITH A
BIT MORE HUMIDITY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY...BUT STILL RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GENERALLY
LOWER TO MID 80S LOOK REASONABLE... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. THE RECORD
HIGH OF 86 IN 1975 FOR BUFFALO LIKELY SAFE...BUT ROCHESTER`S RECORD
HIGH OF 88 IN 1904 THOUGH PROBABLY SAFE COULD BE APPROACHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
MAY SNEAK IN LATER IN THE DAY. GFS ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SREF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE
IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM
FRONTAL ZONE TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE INTO THE
WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY
GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
FEW NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG TERMINALS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES FROM STAGNANT
PATTERN. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO IMPROVE
VSBY. SOME HAZE HAS ALSO FORMED FARTHER EAST ALONG LAKE ONTARIO FROM
KROC TO KART. SO FAR VSBY IN THESE AREAS HAS GENERALLY REMAINED IN
VFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP TO MVFR THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL KEEP ALL THE TERMINALS
DRY DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER
AT KROC WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN
NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST
FRONTAL STRATUS REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF
VFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE FROM STURGEON POINT DOWN TO RIPLEY WHICH
TENDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN NE FLOW. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE HERE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT
AGAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE SPRING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ003>008-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APB
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
142 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO EASTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,UPPER 50S
PTNS OF INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES
SHLD BE MNLY CLR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST IN THE MORNING MOVES EAST INTO THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING A BIT MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING
PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CHANCE SPREADING EAST OF
GENESEE VALLEY IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN AREAS LTR IN
THE DAY.
GOING MORE TWD GFS FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH AFTER 00Z MOVES PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND BRINGS IN
COOLER, DRIER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH
SHLD BRING A DRY DAY TO MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE
FROM SYS OVER THE WESTERN LKS SHLD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SW NY
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE SHWR/TSTM OVER CHAU COUNTY.
TEMPS GENLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SAT. SAT NGT THE HIGH
MOVES EAST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SYS OVER LOWER LAKES BRINGS
CHANCE SHWR/TSTM TO ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.
SUNDAY, LOW OVER THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO MOVES EAST. TRAILING COLD
FRONT PROGGED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 12Z
MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT STILL AHEAD OF
FRONT THAT I DON`T SEE ANY REASON AT THIS TIME TO LOWER POPS FROM
LIKELY RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TEMPS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. COULD GET PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
FEW NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG TERMINALS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES FROM STAGNANT
PATTERN. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO IMPROVE
VSBY. SOME HAZE HAS ALSO FORMED FARTHER EAST ALONG LAKE ONTARIO FROM
KROC TO KART. SO FAR VSBY IN THESE AREAS HAS GENERALLY REMAINED IN
VFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP TO MVFR THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL KEEP ALL THE TERMINALS
DRY DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER
AT KROC WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN
NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST
FRONTAL STRATUS REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF
VFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LIMITS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ003>008-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...SAGE
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...APB
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APB
|