SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT FRI AUG 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER NEAR 1000 OVER LAX AND ABOUT 1800 FEET OVER VANDENBERG.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY FEW CLOUDS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND A DECENT STRATUS FIELD OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE NAM DOES SHOW A DECENT EDDY TONIGHT AND HINTS AT SOME LOW
CLOUDS SLIPPING INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT EDDY WAS OVER
FORECAST LAST NIGHT AND SUSPECT IT IS OVERFORECASTING AGAIN TONIGHT.
KEPT LOW CLOUDS ONLY INTO L.A. COUNTY COASTS AND THEN THE BEACHES OF
VENTURA COUNTY. WRF SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS BOTH SUN AND MON
MORNING AND WITH MOST OTHER SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS REMAINING ABOUT THE
SAME FEEL THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL STAY SIMILAR TO CURRENT STRATUS
PATTERN WITH GOOD CONVERGE IN THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VLY
BUT THE COVERAGE LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE L.A. COUNTY COASTS.
ADDITIONALLY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO FORM OVER L.A. COUNTY.
A FEW AFTERNOON CU POPPING UP NEAR WRIGHTWOOD BUT THE MAIN AXIS OF
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JACINTOS AND
SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. THIS BAND WILL MOVE MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST EVERYDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT A THREAT OVER
THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR EACH DAY PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO
OF WARMING ON THE COASTAL INLAND SECTIONS AS THE ONSHORE PUSH IS A
LITTLE WEAKER EACH DAY. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS STAY ABOUT THE SAME.
.LONG TERM...
GFS ENSEMBLES REALLY FALL APART BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE
VARIANCE BOTH WITH THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH AS WELL AS A PAC WEST TROF.
AS A RESULT DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY FORECAST
ALTHOUGH THE ONLY TWO CONCERNS ARE HOW DEEP WILL THE MARINE LAYER BE
AND WILL THERE BE MONSOON CONVECTION. THE OFFICIAL GFS HINTS AT A
LITTLE CONVECTION BUT HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE PERMUTATIONS KEEP THE
FLOW DRY.
BOTH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM
DAYS. MONSOON FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE KEPT TO THE EAST. HGTS SEEM
HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SMOOSHED OUT OF THE VALLEYS
EXCEPT THE SANTA YNEZ. THE FLOW OVER THE OUTER WATERS DOES NOT LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO SPIN UP MUCH OF AN EDDY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
MAYBE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...
08/2000Z
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR KLAX INDICATED MARINE LAYER NEAR 900 FT
DEEP TODAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SCOURED OUT EARLIER SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WHILE STRATUS JUST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RETURN OF IFR CIGS WITH LOCAL LIFR CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 01-04 THIS EVENING. AREAS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z THIS EVENING ACROSS LA COUNTY COAST AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
VENTURA COUNTY BY 09Z. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT PATCHY
STRATUS WILL REACH LA/VTU VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY
AFTER 06Z THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS.
KBUR...EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF CIGS AROUND 12Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT FRI AUG 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND. MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT WILL RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINING A RENEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. CU BEGAN
FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER. EARLY AFTERNOON ACARS
SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INVERSION BASED NEAR 1200 FT WITH WEAK SLY
WINDS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 4 MB
SAN-IPL.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW AS A TROUGH
MOVES PAST FAR TO THE N. THIS PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING DRIER SW
FLOW ALOFT FOR GRADUALLY DECREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TODAY AND SAT...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SMALLER CHANCE IN THE DESERTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND WRN SAN DIEGO INLAND
VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL WITH MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...SW CA WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF GREATER
MOISTURE TO THE SE. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...INDICATE A RETURN
OF MODERATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY MID WEEK FOR SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE
DESERTS. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED IN TEMPS AND THE MARINE LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...
072145Z...PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS...FORMING AND DISSIPATING WITHIN
AN HOUR...ARE FORMING A SCATTERED LINE FROM SOUTH OF BARSTOW TO
JACUMBA WHICH BECOMES MORE BROKEN IN COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. CUMULONIMBUS TOPS MOSTLY TO FL350 WITH
ISOLATED TO FL450 AND BASES AROUND FL080. TRIGGER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NO LONGER BE REACHED AFTER 0200 UTC BUT INTERACTION OF
DOWNDRAFTS MAY CONTINUE ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS UNTIL 0400 UTC. AFTER
WHICH MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND ADJACENT WATERS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL SHRINK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
SO STRATUS TOPS/BASES EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 200 FEET LOWER...WITH
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS LAYER BETWEEN FL005-FL012 FORMING BY 0600
UTC OVER WATER AND PUSHING INLAND 10 MILES BY 1000 UTC. THIS WILL
BRING LOWER VISIBILITY TO KCRQ AND OTHER COASTAL MESA LOCATIONS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 2-4 SM. OTHERWISE STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED
TO SCATTER OUT AROUND THE SAME TIME SATURDAY MORNING...1630 UTC.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...BALFOUR
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT FRI AUG 8 2008
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
TO FORM SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WHERE WARMER OCEAN TEMPERATURES
EXIST. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS EXIST SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
PERSIST. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE
WELL-ESTABLISHED PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST...AND SANTA YNEZ
AND SALINAS RIVER VALLEYS.
WITH MODELS PERFORMING POORLY WITH MARINE LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF MARINE LAYER
PUSHING NORTH OF POINT MUGU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAM-WRF CONTINUE
TO FORM A FAIRLY DECENT EDDY CIRCULATION THIS MORNING. YET THERE
IS NO EVIDENCE OF ANY CIRCULATION BEING PRESENT AS WINDS AT KSAN
AND KSDB REMAIN WEST...AND WINDS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA COAST HAVE NO REFLECTION OF AN EDDY CIRCULATION
FORMING. WITH CURRENT PACKAGE...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...SO PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD LITTLE COVERAGE SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.
WITH WARMER OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE MARINE LAYER...WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST FOR TODAY. PACKAGE TRENDS GENERALLY
HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WHILE KEEPING THE CENTRAL COAST PERSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAYS TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES START TO OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT BETWEEN THE GFS...UKMET...AND NAM-WRF AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
WITH NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CUTOFF TROUGH SLOSHES SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. FROM THE LATEST MODIS FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY AT 06Z
FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY THE GFS AND UKMET ARE PICKING UP ON IS
LOCATED STRETCHES FROM 40 N AND 128 W SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 33 N AND
131 W. GFS AND UKMET START SCOURING THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS
THE DYING BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...WHILE
THE NAM-WRF THINKS THE STRONGER FEATURE MAY BE STILL UPSTREAM FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THE NAM-WRF USUALLY A BETTER
MODELER OF CUTOFF SYSTEM...THE NAM-WRF SOLUTION MAY BE THE BETTER
CHOICE. PACKAGE BROAD BRUSHES THIS ISSUE FOR NOW...KEEPING
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A MARINE PRESENCE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND RIDGE ESTABLISHING FOR NEXT WEEK...A MARINE LAYER
REGIME AT THE COASTAL AREAS WILL PERSIST...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WINDOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR MIDWEEK NEXT...BUT TIMING STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...08/2030Z
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR KLAX INDICATED MARINE LAYER NEAR 900 FT
DEEP TODAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SCOURED OUT EARLIER SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WHILE STRATUS JUST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RETURN OF IFR CIGS WITH LOCAL LIFR CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 01-04Z THIS EVENING. AREAS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z THIS EVENING ACROSS LA COUNTY COAST AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
VENTURA COUNTY BY 09Z. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT PATCHY
STRATUS WILL REACH LA/VTU VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY
AFTER 06Z THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS.
KBUR...EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT PATCHY CIGS WILL REACH KBUR BY 10Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...31
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
653 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR TIME OF YEAR WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUING TO BUILD WELL NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND THE
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER EASTERN NOAM SHARPENING AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODELS SIMILAR IN
MAINTAINING THE PATTERN IN SHORTER TERM BUT AS WEEKEND PROGRESSES
DIFFERENCES IN HOW PATTERN EVOLVES GROW...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER RIDGE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND BREAKS DOWN AS ENERGY FROM STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC UPPER LOWS COME ASHORE AND CROSS THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL DRY AIR OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE THAT DROPPED SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COUPLE MINOR
DISTURBANCES FOLLOWING IT BUT ANY SHRA OR TS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
IMPULSES AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE CONFINED TO POINTS N-E
WHERE CORE OF COLD POOL ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE
LOCATED CLOSER TO UPPER TROF AXIS.
CENTER OF SURFACE HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. PROFILER AND VAD WINDS ALREADY INDICATING
25-30KT N FLOW 925-850 MB. WITH MIXING AFTER SUNRISE SFC WINDS TO
VEER TO MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY TURN IN OFF OF LAKE MI. THIS
WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN THE MID 70S TODAY WHILE REST OF
FA WILL MAINLY MAX OUT IN THE LOWER 80S.
CENTER OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKY AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
55-60 DEGREE RANGE GENERALLY...WITH USUAL ELEVATED URBAN TEMPS AND
LOCAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE SPOTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH CENTER OF HI OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY.
MODELS SUGGESTING SOME WAA CLOUDS AND RA BREAK OUT FRI NIGHT
ACROSS MN AND IA...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE
MEAN FLOW AND REACHING NORTHERN IL DURING SAT AND SUN. FEEL THAT
FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NW AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE FA
SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
HAVE POPS UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FA BY MON NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING MON...AND OVER IL BY
12Z TUE. SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER VERSION
OF THIS SO CANNOT TOTALLY DISREGARD GFS BUT DO BELIEVE IT TO BE
WAY OVERDONE WITH CLOSED CIRCULATIONS SFC UP THRU 500MB.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
1200 UTC TAFS...
WILL INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WIND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE THE WIND HAS LITTLE
FRICTION AND THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW 2 KM HAS BEEN WELL MIXED. THE
PROFILER AT BLUE RIVER WISCONSIN SHOWS 20 KNOT TO 25 KNOTS WIND
AROUND 2 KM. THE ACARS SOUNDING AT ORD SHOWS AN INVERSION AT 600
METERS. THIS INVERSION WILL BREAK WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHES 77
DEGREES AFTER 9 TO 10 AM THIS MORNING. WILL FORECAST A NORTHWEST
WIND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT IT MAY NOT MOVE VERY FAR INLAND. WE WILL FORECAST
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR A
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO OCCUR IN A PARTICULAR LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...
601 AM CDT
LARGE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDS SOUTH TO ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. A LOW LIES FROM WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH NEW YORK
STATE AND TO SOUTHERN OHIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST VERY SLOWLY
AND WILL BUILD OVER MANITOBA TO LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE INDIANA SHORE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
100 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY...AREA SFC OBS INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY STL TO IND...BASICALLY IN THE SAME PLACE IT WAS
LOCATED THIS MORNING. THIS STALLED FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE
CWA OVERNIGHT HELPED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND
EVENTUALLY THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN.
HOWEVER AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE REMAINS A CHC FOR
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISLD-SCT SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KY.
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE FRONT ARE CAPPED FROM MID-LEVEL WARMING
FOUND ON RECENT ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF SDF. THEREFORE WILL LOWER POPS
TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THINKING THAT WE WILL
REMAINED CAPPED. FURTHER SOUTH...CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE
TN BORDER...SO LEFT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THIS AFTN-EVE. IF
ANY OF THESE STORMS FORM...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. IF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BREAK THE
CAP...THEN THEY SHOULD WANE AROUND SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT...SHORT-TERM MODELS PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR FAR
SRN CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP FORM A POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS SITUATION. MAY ADD IN PATCHY
FOG TO OUR NORTHERN CWA. IF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE TOO STRONG
THOUGH...THEN STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY THAN FOG. ALSO AMPLE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD HINDER FOG FORMATION. HELD OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO
MOS...WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERDO PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THUS FOLLOWED
ENSEMBLES AND ONLY KEPT IN SMALL CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH IN
CASE THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW. CONCERNING HIGH
TEMPS...WENT A TAD BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONGER TERM THE AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN IS
BEING REPLACED BY DRIER AIR AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEP TROUGH TO
OUR EAST AND RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
BEGINNING SUNDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
KEEP THE HIGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED TOWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES
SUNDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS US DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ATTM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE RECOMMENDED ECMWF SCENARIO BUT WITH
MODIFICATIONS MADE BY HPC. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WILL KEEP POPS LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
FOLLOWING THE ECMWF SCENARIO...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY WITH A TRAILING WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLING TO OUR
SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME LOWERING IN
VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 13Z THURSDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR LENGTHY PERIODS AT BWG AND LEX...AND MAY OCCUR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS AT SDF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AL/SLD
LONG TERM....MBS
AVIATION.....MACZKO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE IS
DIVERTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AS RIDGING OCCURS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UP THE ROCKIES.
THIS IS FAVORING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ACARS
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 90 TO 125KT WESTERLY JET FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WEST INTO THE PLAINS. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY WAS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
ARRIVAL OF SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND INTRODUCE
PASSAGE OF COLD POOL ALOFT. INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY AS
A RESULT...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. 00Z
NAM/GFS INDICATE LOW INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
21Z SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO ALIGN WITH THESE VALUES...INDICATING A
DECENT CHANCE OF 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE...BUT A VERY LOW CHANCE OF 1000
J/KG. WHILE THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME CHARGE SEPARATION
FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...INDIVIDUAL LIFE CYCLES WILL LIKELY BE
RELATIVELY SHORT OWING TO 30KT OR LESS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
RATHER DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
00Z NAM/GFS INDICATE HIGH BASED CONVECTION WITH INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AS THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS
IN...THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY GUSTY OR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION AROUND
SUNSET...MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT TO
THE NORTH. GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT....
LEADING TO A COOLER NIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHRTWV TROF ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF UPR TROF OVER NERN
CONUS WILL MOVE ACRS MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND FRI...AND SHUD
BE CLEAR OF FCST AREA BY FRI EVE.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DVLPMT OF INSTBY DESPITE BLW
NRML TEMPS. CONCERN ABOUT EROSION OF LOW LVL MSTR WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING OF UPR WAVE PRECLUDES HIGHER POPS...BUT HAVE EXPANDED CVRG
SWD TO ENCOMPASS ALL ZONES. HIGHEST POPS IN NRN ZONES CLOSEST TO
UPR TROF.
PATTERN IN XTNDD PDS WILL FEATURE UPR TROF OVER NERN CONUS AND
AMPLIFIED RDG OVER CNTRL CONUS...TRENDING TWD OMEGA BLOCK THIS
WKEND. RESULT WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MID ATLC...WITH
MINIMA APRCHG LOW 50S SAT AND SUN MRNGS IN WRN ZONES.
OMEGA BLOCK ERODES EARLY NEXT WK...WITH LESS AMPLIFIED TROF
REMAINING ACRS ERN CONUS. MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATE SHRTWV
TROF /OF VARYING STRENGTH AND SPEED/ APRCHG MID ATLC MON THRU WED.
WITH WLY TO WSWLY FLOW ACRS APLCHNS...LEE TROF SHUD DVLP AND AID
IN MSTR RETURN TO FCST AREA BY ARRIVAL OF SHRTWV TROF. HAVE
EXPANDED POPS TEMPORALLY FROM MON EVE THRU WED...WITH HIGHEST
VALUES TUE AFTN THRU TUE EVE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE...WHICH WILL LIMIT PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
COLD POOL ALOFT SWINGS OVER THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
MENTION AS TEMPO OF SHRA AND CB...AS INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND FEEL MOST ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO GENERATE CHARGE SEPARATION
FOR MUCH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...BUT SOME THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED IN
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW
ARE INGREDIENTS WHICH SUPPORT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS.
SECONDARY COOL FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE NNW...AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE MID LEVELS.
ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS PSBL FRI AS TROF AXIS PASSES THRU...FOLLOWED BY
PD OF DRIER WX THIS WKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH MID
DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REINFORCE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...LIKELY
NECESSITATING SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.
ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS PSBL FRI AS TROF AXIS PASSES THRU...BUT PLEASANT
WX XPCD FOR WKEND AS WINDS GENLY REMAIN LGT. RETURN TO WETTER
CONDITIONS MON EVE THRU WED AS SHRTWV TROF NEARS...WINDS
INCR...AND MSTR RETURNS TO AREA.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGOWSKI/KRAMAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1120 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2008
.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NM AND ALSO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST YESTERDAY HAVE
RESULTED IN SATURATED GROUNDS AND WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RUNOFF. IN
ADDITION...RECENT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHUSKAS...MAY ALSO RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING. MORNING SOUNDINGS AT EPZ AND ABQ HAVE SHOWN
INCREASED PWAT VALUES FROM THE SOUNDING TAKEN THURSDAY AT 12Z. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT...AS ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THESE AREAS. ZONE UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...257 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2008...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS NM SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM THE NW MTNS SE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE SE PLAINS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WITH A LARGE MOIST PLUME OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ADVECTING NORTH
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE E
NM/W TX. 400-250 MB AIRCRAFT WIND PLOT SUPPORTS THE RIDGE POSITION
OVER NE NM. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. 00Z
NAM/GFS POORLY INITIALIZED PRECIPITATION FIELDS FOR THIS MORNING.
BEST ANALYSIS WAS THE RUC13 AND MORE CONSISTENT 12Z/00Z ECMWF/UKMET.
POSITIONED THE GREATEST POPS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET SFC
FRONT AND ENHANCED REGIONS OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS.
NUDGED FORECAST PACKAGE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/HPC QPF
FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BLENDED THE 00Z CANADIAN THEREAFTER.
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEK
BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY. LEFT HIGHEST POPS IN THE NE
CORNER WHERE DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SW CORNER WHERE MONSOONAL TAP ENHANCES
DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. EXTENDED MODEL SOLNS
ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AGAIN...WITH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A DOWNTICK THEN
DEVELOPS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.
GUYER
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR TO
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH 17Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM KRTN TO KLVS AND EASTWARD...
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF THE STATE INCLUDING
KCAO. THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AFTER 17Z PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY RAIN MUCH OF FORECAST AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN
AND NE AREAS INCLUDING KFMN...KGUP...KLVS...KSAF...AND KTCC.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 05
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY WITH SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. WETTING RAIN WILL REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXTENDED
MODELS HINT AT SOME CHANGES STARTING ON TUESDAY...WITH A REDUCTION IN
WETTING RAIN MOST AREAS AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST...AND DECREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ001-004>008-011-012-014-016-017-026.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED RAINY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY...BUT A SURFACE FRONT MAY
SET UP OVER NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK AND MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN SKY COVER/TEMPS...AND
TO INTRODUCE SMALL HAIL POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS WITH ANY STRONGER CORES
TODAY. LATEST POINT/ACARS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING BNDRY LYR ALREADY
BECOMING UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WITH DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH IN SC CANADA AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
NEW YORK...LITTLE INHIBITION FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY.
MID LVL LAPSE RATES A BIT WEAKER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN AREAS
SOUTH...NONETHELESS THESE SHOULD STEEPEN LATER TODAY WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. SAVING GRACE IS THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT MORE SCATTERED THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAFL WORDING AS CELLS WILL LIKELY MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY
(LESS THAN 25 MPH). WITH FAIRLY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS LESS THAN 9
KFT...STRONGER CORES WILL ALSO HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LACK OF STRONGER ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...MAX TEMPS WILL BE GOVERNED MORE STRONGLY BY DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER THAN ELEVATION...AND THUS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...FROM
67 TO 74 MOST AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISC FOR TONIGHT FROM 349 AM EDT THU...
AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TNGT...SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. THIS AGAIN WILL INCR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR ENTIRE CWA...BUT BASED ON THE
TRACK OF UPPER LOW AS IT DIGS SOUTH...BEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW WILL BE
FROM THE CVLY EASTWARD. ALL AREAS OVER CWA WILL BE PRONE TO SOME
FLOODING ACTIVITY DO TO PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL RECEIVED. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TNGT OR ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY
AND WILL SHOW INCR IN POPS FOR AREA-WIDE AS SYSTEM SLOW TO MV OUT
OF AREA. BUFKIT SUGGESTING ANY TS THAT MAY FORM FRIDAY MAY HAVE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR THE CWA DO TO LACK OF WINDS TO
QUICKLY MV ANY STORMS. WINDS NEARLY UNIFORM UP TO 25KFT. MDL QPF
FOR GD PORTION OF THE CWA COULD REACH 1-3 INCHES AND WITH AREAS
ALREADY RAIN-SOAKED...THIS COULD BE MAJOR ISSUE. WILL ADJUST POPS
BY FRIDAY NGT INTO SAT MORN FROM SOUTH TO N AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO LIFT OUT OF AREA. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH
INTO THE CWA FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT THURSDAY...BUILDING SFC RIDGE WILL PLAY KEY ROLE
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED TIMING OF RIDGE. THIS WILL CURRENTLY ALLOW SOME DRYING
DURING MIDWEEK FOR GD PORTION OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO SET UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER BY MONDAY IF RIDGE
SETS UP TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PLACE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
CONTINUING LGT RW AND POSSIBLE TRW OVER NORTHERN ZONES. THIS FRNT
WOULD PUSH THRU REGION BY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SFC RIDGE BUILDS OUT
OF CANADA. PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD HAVE BROUGHT A SFC LOW UP ALONG
FRNT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GD STEADY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY...BUT NOW
AS SHIFTED SOUTH. WILL JUST KEEP SL CHANCE IN FOR NOW FOR RW/TRW
MON-WED AS NEXT RUNS COULD SHIFT SYSTEM TO BE SLOWER AND ALLOW SFC
LOW TO COME UP OVER THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME TO
ACCOMMODATE CLDS AND RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE N.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...FOG IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND THE TREND THROUGH 14Z WILL BE FOR CONDITIONS TO
BECOME VFR. AFTER 16Z...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WILL HOWEVER RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE WILL BE VFR PERIODS...BUT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS.
SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THE SHOWER THREAT AND KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON
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