Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols.

Final Report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.2

See also press release (dtd 4 September 2008) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

CCSP, 2008: Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. H. Levy II, D.T. Shindell, A. Gilliland, M.D. Schwarzkopf, L.W. Horowitz, (eds.). Department of Commerce, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, Washington, D.C., USA, 100 pp.

See also brochure:

Findings and Summary of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Frequently Asked Questions.

Final Report

Note: All links are to PDF files.

Entire Report [4 Mb]

Individual Sections

Front Matter [1 Mb]

Executive Summary [430 Kb]

Chapter 1: Introduction [401 Kb]

Chapter 2: Climate Projections from Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gas Stabilization Emission Scenarios [724 Kb]

Chapter 3: Climate Change from Short-Lived Emissions Due to Human Activities [2 Mb]

Chapter 4: Findings, Issues, Opportunities, and Recommendations [307 Kb]

Back Matter [472 Kb]

Supporting Materials

Appendix A: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Projections (Supplemental to Chapter 2) [228 Kb]

Appendix B: MAGICC Model Description (Supplemental to Chapter 2) [167 Kb]

Appendix C: Composition Models (Supplemental to Chapter 2) [264 Kb]

Appendix D: Climate Models (Supplemental to Chapter 3) [190 Kb]

Appendix E: Scenarios (Supplemental to Chapter 4) [189 Kb]

This document, part of the Synthesis and Assessment Products described in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Strategic Plan, was prepared in accordance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554) and the information quality act guidelines issued by the Department of Commerce and NOAA pursuant to Section 515). The CCSP Interagency Committee relies on Department of Commerce and NOAA certifications regarding compliance with Section 515 and Department guidelines as the basis for determining that this product conforms with Section 515. For purposes of compliance with Section 515, this CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product is an “interpreted product” as that term is used in NOAA guidelines and is classified as “highly influential”. This document does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or provide recommendations for regulatory action.

US Climate Change Science Program, Suite 250, 1717 Pennsylvania Ave, NW, Washington, DC 20006. Tel: +1 202 223 6262. Fax: +1 202 223 3065. Email: . Web: www.climatescience.gov. Webmaster: