Typical Questions Asked at this Stage

Major Decisions in Connection With This Step

Developing Demand Data

Tools That Can be Used During This Stage

• Coho
• (BLS) Occupational Outlook Handbook

Developing a Current Workforce Profile

DOT Attrition Planner

DOT Employment Facts

In this step the organization conducts a staffing assessment, a significant activity that requires major decisions by the organization.  This step involves benchmarking the organization's skill mix and staff size against functional requirements identified in Step 3.  The expected result is a forecast of the type of skills, numbers and location of employees needed in the organization over the next three to five years.

 The results can be used to develop model organizations that can be applied to projected activity levels from the strategic plan.  This assessment provides a key piece of information for developing demand data.  The larger and more complex the organization, the more complex this step will be.  Conversely, for a smaller organization, perhaps only dealing with a few major functions, it may be a relatively quick and simple process.

Typical Questions Asked at this Stage

• How will jobs within the organization change as a result of technological advancements, economic, social and political conditions?  
• What are the consequences, outcomes or results of these changes?
• What skills/competencies will workers need to accomplish the work of the future? 
• What are the qualifications required to perform future key roles in the organization?
• What will be the reporting relationships?
• How will divisions, work units, and jobs be designed?
• How will work flow into each part of the organization?  What will be done with it?  Where will the work flow?

Major Decisions in Connection With This Step

1. Determining what type of assessment will be conducted

• An assessment can be organization-focused. The organization as a whole can be compared to like organizations as a whole to determine appropriate staff composition.
• An assessment can also be process-focused. The organization's major processes and activities can be compared to similar processes and activities in other organizations.  One process may be compared to organization A, another to organization B, and so on.  The process-focused assessment provides more flexibility in that the organization can benchmark against several possible futures to determine a workforce plan that will be resilient in a variety of situations.

1. Determining who will handle the assessment

The assessment may be handled by an external consultant:

• Pro: Perhaps a more objective viewpoint; may have access to industry data otherwise not available; can be time saver.
• Con:  Cost; may not know the organization well; potential lack of commitment on management's part.

The assessment may be handled by existing staff:

• Pro: Lower cost; learning experience for staff; possible enhanced credibility of results.
• Con:  Steep learning curve; limited access to industry data; time consuming; staff limitations.

Develop Demand Data

 Developing demand data is determining how far and how fast the organization can move toward the ideal staff envisioned in the staffing assessment.  The anticipated level and type of activity reflected in various resources such as the strategic plan, performance agreements, and performance plans are clearly factors, and management judgment may be required on any number of subjective issues.

Areas for decision-making about demand assumptions include:

• Program/operational strategies that will impact staffing levels
• The organization's diversity objectives
• Level of effort issues such as construction schedules
• New DOT initiatives that will require additional staff (or different skills)
• Pending legislation
• Environmental issues
• Desired skill and experience mix in view of existing workforce demographics
• The impact of special programs such as a quality initiative on staffing needs.

 Demand data must be forecasted for the levels at which the organization completes strategic plans. It may be forecasted at lower levels, if organizations wish to do so for internal analysis purposes.

 The communication plan should stress that forecasted demand levels and skill mix are not carved in stone.  They will be revised annually as the planning cycle is repeated or more often if unforeseen circumstances dictate.

Tools That Can be Used During This Stage

Coho

 Coho is a web-based decision-support system for managers or HR consultants to create position descriptions and supporting documentation. It can be very useful in easily constructing hypothetical or real positions. A manager or HR consultant can also "mix and match" duties or clusters of occupations to easily create a "hybrid" position description.  The system then automatically identifies all knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA's) required for the position.

Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Outlook Handbook

 Available on the web at http://www.bls.gov/ocohome.htm , this handbook describes occupations and includes research that indicates where a specific occupation seems to be headed, i.e., whether the supply will shrink or expand in the next few years and factors, e.g., technology that may affect the occupation.  Of particular use to workforce planning, this section addresses how the skill requirements are changing and evolving.

 OA human resource management consultants are available to assist managers with using these tools. (See Appendix III for examples of other tools and resources.

Develop Current Workforce Profile

 Developing a current workforce profile can be achieved by developing supply data.  This is accomplished by projecting the current employee population into the future as if there were no new hires. Projections can be made at whatever level the organization desires.  The expected result of this step should be a projection of the employee population over the next three to five years if nothing were done to replace attrition.

 Organizations can determine the number, types and locations of current employees using the tools described in Step 4.

 As with demand, a number of assumptions must be clarified if organizations need to use attrition assumptions specific to their organization:

• The percentage of employees who will resign or transfer.
• The percentage of employees who will retire or die

A general attrition rate can then be determined.

For example:

       Resign/Transfer percentage

Retirement Percentage

+  Death Percentage

Attrition Rate Percentage

 It is important to know the components of the attrition rate so adjustments can be made.  For example, a planned voluntary retirement program may impact the retirement and/or resignation rate.

NOTE:  The literature suggests that a common attrition assumption of 4.5% has been used by various organizations.  This may vary depending on size of the organization, government hiring freezes, downsizing, or economic change.

DOT Attrition Planner

 Attrition Planner is a workforce-planning tool that assists DOT managers in identifying past attrition and predicting future attrition of employees in key occupations.

 This Excel spreadsheet model contains eight years of actual attrition data and it predicts losses for the next eight years. Managers can view summary data, e.g., total attrition, for an occupation or drill down several levels of detail, e.g., to look at optional and early retirements, and other losses.

 For most of the key occupations, Attrition Planner reflects a pressing need for planning based on the impact of "baby boomer" retirements beginning in 2001.  Attrition Planner is available for download on the Departmental HR web site. http://dothr.ost.dot.gov

DOT Employment Facts

 This annual workforce demographic publication contains organizational onboard strengths and workforce profiles, e.g., females, minorities, disabled, veterans, etc.  Current and past issues can be researched to determine patterns for your organization. All report tables from this publication are also available on the DOT HR web site at http://dothr.ost.dot.gov