Land of Flowers on a Latitude of Deserts: Aiding Conservation & Management of Florida's Biodiversity Using Predictions from Downscaled AOGCM Climate Scenarios Combined with Ecological Modeling

Project Investigators: Thomas J. Smith III, Eric Chassignet, Donald L. DeAngelis, Ann M. Foster, Wiley M. Kitchens, Vasu Misra, H. Franklin Percival, Nathaniel Plant, Daniel Slone, Lydia Stefanova, David M. Sumner, Eric Swain, Susan Walls, Christa Zweig Project Personnel: Mike Allen, Hal Davis, Timothy W. Green, Paul R. Nelson, Brad Stith, Ann B. Tihansky, Ginger Tiling-Range, Rachel J. Pawlitz Project Start Date: 2009 End Date: 2011 Recent Funding: (FY10) USGS NCCWSC, (FY09) USGS NCCWSC Data Metadata Publications Related Links

La Florida (Land of Flowers) straddles latitudes forming the northern hemisphere's desert belt. Orlando is one-degree latitude south of Cairo, Egypt. Florida is unique because it is a peninsula surrounded by warm water. Florida also has a high biodiversity: 4,000+ flowering plants, including >700 trees; 90 mammals; 52 amphibians; 88 reptiles; 500 birds; 250+ freshwater fish, many of which are endangered. How will Florida's biodiversity respond to a changing climate? Which species and habitats will increase or decrease? What role does land use-land cover change play? Answers to these questions are of critical concern to resource managers. To address these questions we are developing regionally down-scaled climate model predictions from three coupled Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models for Florida and the southeastern US. The climate predictions will then be used as inputs to a suite of previously developed ecological and hydrological models to assess species, communities and habitats for two study regions in Florida that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The study regions are the Suwannee River / Big Bend area in the north, which is a relatively undisturbed, pristine temperate system. In the south, we are working in the Greater Everglades which is a highly impacted tropical system.

Objectives include:

• Climate model downscaling
• Using down-scaled climate variables in hydrological models
• Ecological studies and modeling in the Greater Everglades area
• Ecological studies and modeling in the Suwannee River / Big Bend area
• Climate envelope models for native and exotic plants
• Database management, data dissemination, application and outreach

Data

Metadata

• Land of Flowers on a Latitude of Deserts: Aiding Conservation & Management of Florida's Biodiversity Using Predictions from 'Down-Scaled' AOGCM Scenarios in Combination w/ Ecological Models (project metadata)

Publications

Book/Chapter from Book

• The use of historical charts and photographs in ecosystem restoration: Examples from the Everglades Historical Air Photo Project (from Landscapes Through the Lens: Aerial Photographs and Historic Environment)

Journal Articles

• A proxy for high-resolution regional reanalysis for the Southeast United States: assessment of precipitation variability in dynamically downscaled reanalyses
• Analysis and Simulation of Propagule Dispersal and Salinity Intrusion from Storm Surge on the Movement of a Marsh–Mangrove Ecotone in South Florida
• Applying Downscaled Global Climate Model Data to a Hydrodynamic Surface-Water (available from Scientific Research website)
• Comparison of Small-Mammal Sampling Techniques in Tidal Salt Marshes of the Central Gulf Coast of Florida (available from BioOne Online Journals website)
• Controls on mangrove forest-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchanges in western Everglades National Park
• Dynamic downscaling of the twentieth-century reanalysis over the southeastern United States (available from Springer Link website)
• Dynamics of Mangrove-Marsh Ecotones in Subtropical Coastal Wetlands: Fire, Sea-Level Rise, and Water Levels
• Implications of multi-scale sea level and climate variability for coastal resources: A case study for south Florida and Everglades National Park, USA
• On the twenty-first-century wet season projections over the Southeastern United States
• Reconciling the Spatial Distribution of the Surface Temperature Trends in the Southeastern United States (available from American Meteorological Society website)
• Reconstructing the 20th century high-resolution climate of the southeastern United States (available from Wiley Online Library website)
• The influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Florida panhandle sea breeze
• The observed teleconnection between the equatorial Amazon and the Intra-Americas Seas (available from Springer Link website)
• The rendition of the Atlantic Warm Pool in the reanalyses (available from Springer Link website)
• The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges
• Towards a theory of ecotone resilience: Coastal vegetation on a salinity gradient (available from ScienceDirect website)
• Understanding wet season variations over Florida (available from Florida State University website)
• Varied Diagnosis of the Observed Surface Temperature Trends in the Southeast United States (available from American Meteorological Society website)

Related Links

• A Land of Flowers on a Latitude of Deserts: Aiding Conservation and Management of Florida's Biodiversity by using Predictions from Downscaled AOGCM Climate Scenarios in Combination with Ecological Modeling (USGS SESC project page)
• A Land of Flowers on a Latitude of Deserts: Aiding Conservation and Management of Florida’s Biodiversity (USGS NCCWSC project page)