National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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FXUS65 KABQ 312329 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
429 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Except for breezy to locally windy conditions across the eastern
highlands, winds will be light through the TAF period with VFR
conditions.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather to continue through the weekend, then an opportunity
for some precipitation early next week. Northwest flow will continue
through Wednesday. A weakening ridge of high pressure will be over NM
Thursday into Friday. This upper high will get shoved to the south
with increasing zonal flow aloft this weekend. A disturbance may
finally impact NM early next week. A back door cold front will flirt
with the northeast and east central areas tonight, and will make
better progress south Wednesday night. Another back door cold front
may slip into the northeast Thursday and Friday night. A stronger
back door front could impact eastern NM next Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another fine afternoon of weather with lots of sunshine and not much
wind except on the central mountain peaks onto their east slopes and
onto the eastern highlands. Winds will continue at moderate speeds
tonight in these areas, otherwise just light winds. The sky will be
mostly clear with only some high clouds. Exceptions could be some mid
clouds in the northwest and low clouds are possible behind the cold
front in far northeast NM real late tonight and early Wednesday. Lows
will be similar to last night, mostly above normal.

A dry, weak northwest flow aloft will continue Wednesday through
Friday as a weak ridge of high pressure anchors itself over the state.
The pesky back door front will make better progress south Wednesday
night. Highs will be cooler across the east, and especially in the
northeast, Wednesday and Thursday. These cooler temperatures though
will only drop highs to near normal in the northeast.

The flow aloft will gradually back to a zonal, i.e. west to east,
flow Friday through the weekend. It will also begin to strengthen.
with increasing winds over mostly the northeast quarter of our
forecast area. Highs will rebound in the east with all areas above
normal Friday through the weekend.

The flow will back some more with southwest to northeast flow early
next in response to an approaching short wave trough from the west.
If enough moisture and instability gets into NM we will finally see
some rain and high mountain snow showers Monday through at least
Tuesday. A trailing short wave trough from the northwest could allow
precipitation to linger into Wednesday. Highs will be cooler but not
colder.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continue to undercut model dewpoint guidance for some of the higher
terrain areas and areas to the lee of the central mountains due to a
stronger to very strong mid level dry intrusion during the rest of
the week. Also increased wind speed values for the Saturday and
Mon/Tue wave passage period. Mixing heights are projected to be
above normal during those periods. Otherwise...mixing looks to be on
the lower side.

Near term fire weather highlights will be an extra strong mid level
dry intrusion which should last through the end of this week. The
dry intrusion will make for a tricky RH forecast because mixing
heights are projected to be on the lower side. Areas most likely to
be impacted such as the higher ridge levels and to the lee of the
central mtns have been edited accordingly.

The other fire weather highlight will be the poor mixing depicted by
the models through the week. This means ventilation rates will be on
the lower side despite the higher transport wind at times.

Surface winds will be lighter on Wednesday compared to today. A back
door cold front or wind shift will impact the eastern third or so
later tonight into Wed. Humidity values will rise a result of this
wind shift. Surface winds will increase over the higher terrain
areas and to the lee of the central mtns on Thur/Fri. It is possible
the wind speeds are a little underdone over the higher mountain
peaks of the Sandia/Manzano/Sangre de Cristos so later shifts can re
look at that.

All of the weather models continue to show a Pacific wave passage
for Saturday. Models have been showing the wave passage for the past
several days although they have trended drier and drier. Perhaps a
few light mtn showers across the far north. Otherwise a dry forecast
is projected. Higher mixing will occur with the wave thus wind
speeds will increase. Some localized strong wind/low RH grid boxes
show up across portions of the east. Will be monitoring that.

Mixing heights should lower on Sunday before a secondary Pacific
wave moves over the region Mon/Tue. A stronger surface low is
expected to develop to the lee of the Front Range and strong winds
aloft are depicted by the models. Thus...increased model wind speed
guidance numbers. This period will need to be watched for strong
wind/low RH alignment across the Plains.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
