National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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593
FXUS61 KAKQ 010226
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
926 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak...dry cold front will push south of the region later tonight,
and will dissipate over the Carolinas on Wednesday. Another cold front
will cross the area Wednesday night. High pressure will return for
Thursday. A trough of low pressure moves through the Carolinas on
Friday, with strong high pressure then building over the Mid Atlantic
states by Saturday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Current analysis indicating a weak sfc cold front over the
Piedmont pushing E. Skies are mainly clear with some developing
high clouds. Highly variable temperatures prevail, with warmer
readings with the mixed airmass near the front (in the 50s),
with some areas of eastern and southeast VA and the eastern
shore into the mid- upper 30s under near calm winds.
With the front pushing E/SE over the next few hrs and south of
the CWA overnight, expect the colder locations to actually warm
up by at least a few degrees through 06Z, before falling off
again prior to 12Z. Have made some adjustments to current hourly
temperatures, to raise values in the more mixed/windy areas,
and to lower them in the calm/de-coupled locations for a few
hrs. Mins were adjusted slightly, into the lower-mid 30s for the
MD eastern shore and portions of eastern VA, with upper 30s to
lower 40s for most of the CWA, but not occurring until well
after midnight. Skies will trend towards increasing clouds
overnight and will avg out partly cloudy S to mostly cloudy N
after 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Wed through Thu...a broad upper level trough stretches
across the NE CONUS from the Midwest to New Eng. Colder
Canadian air will sink down into the US and gradually sag down
into the local forecast area. Highs Wed in the u40s on the
eastern shore...in the 50s across central and southern VA VA
and around 60F in NE NC. A second cold front crosses the FA Wed
night w/ potentially enough forcing/uvm for spotty
-RA...otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Lows around 30F nw to
around 40F far SE. Partly sunny and cooler Thu with highs in
the l-m40s N and on the eastern shore...to the u40s-l50s S.

The cooldown continues Thu night-Fri. Models continuing to gain
further agreement in developing very weak lo pres on tail of
frontal boundary invof interior SE CONUS Thu night...which
tracks quickly E and off the coast on Fri. Will keep PoPs 20-40%
across srn/SE VA and NE NC during Fri. Initially...atmosphere
cold enough to potentially have pcpn start out as a brief period
of SN Fri morning. BL temperatures expected to rise sufficiently
above freezing by late morning (and forecast low level
thicknesses) supporting any SN going to RA). Lows Thu night
from the u20s in northern and central locations...to l30s in far
SE VA and coastal NE NC. No mention of SN accumulations at this
time. VRB clouds-partly sunny far nrn tier Fri...mostly cloudy
elsewhere. Highs in the l-m40s N to around 40F in srn/SE VA and
NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light pcpn mainly in the form of rain will exit sern areas
during Friday night as low pressure pushes farther offshore.
High pressure returns Saturday for dry wx. The next system is
expected to bring another round of pcpn back to the entire area
on Sunday. The dominant p-type is expected to be rain, although
low-level thickness values support a brief period of snow at the
onset Sunday morning. High temps will remain in the 40s with
lows in the 20s and 30s thru Sunday. A milder wx pattern is
expected to develop for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Mainly
clear skies are expected overnight with only a few high clouds
expected. Mid and high level clouds will once again increase
towards the end of the forecast period as a weak cold front
approaches the region. Winds will continue to diminish overnight
and will generally remain light on Wednesday out of the SW 5-10
kt.

Outlook: Ceilings could potentially fall to lower-end VFR
late Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region. We could also
see a few spotty sprinkles/light rain showers, but impacts
should be minimal. A period of sub-VFR conditions will be
possible Thursday night and into Friday, across mainly southern
portions of the area, as a low pressure develops southeast of
the region. Another cold front approaches the region Sunday
bringing the next chance for precipitation and sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Current observations still showing SCA conditions over the
lower Bay/lower James, Currituck Sound and the Ocean. Had to
extend SCA for the lower Bay/lower James thru 7 pm given gusty
winds expected to last past 4 pm. Will let SCA for the remaining
river zones and middle Bay expire at 4 pm as expected. Seas are
currently running 4-6 ft across the north; 3-4 ft south.

Winds subside to 10-15kt tonight as low pressure to the north
of the area weakens as it lifts to the ENE, before re-organizing
over the Gulf of Maine early Wednesday. Should be able to let
all SCAs expire at 7pm except the ocean zones north of Parramore
Island where seas will take until early Wed morning to drop
below 5 ft. SW winds 10kt or less expected Wed. Seas 2-3ft;
waves 1-2 ft.

A weak cold front will cross the area Wednesday evening
resulting in a wind shift to NNE. A minimal shallow CAA surge is
expected and conditions should be sub-SCA. This boundary
dissipates Thursday, before another weak cold front crosses the
region Thursday night as high pressure builds north of the area.
Once again, conditions are forecast to remain sub-SCA. Low
pressure tracks off the Outer Banks Friday, with stronger high
pressure building in from the northwest Friday night. This could
bring a period of low-end SCA conditions. High pressure builds
over the region Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...JDM
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
