National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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542
FXUS61 KCLE 010450
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1150 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The clipper storm system has moved into Western NY late this
afternoon and will reach the New England Coast by Wednesday
afternoon. Another trough will slide across the eastern Great
Lakes on Wednesday. High pressure will gradually move from the
northern Plains to the Ohio Valley for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Updated...Radar shows light precip moving ESE across southern
lower Michigan so added a small chance of snow showers from NWRN
OH across the central lakeshore where there were no pops in for
the overnight. Other minor changes made.

Original...The clipper storm system has moved into Western NY
late this afternoon and will reach the New England States in the
morning. Temperatures will slowly cool in the wake of the low with
precipitation taking its time transitioning back to all snow. It
will become cold enough for some lake enhancement overnight with
light accumulations expected. The highest amounts will be in the
snowbelt but should only add up to 1 to 3 inches. This would
mainly be across the higher terrain in Geauga County and NW PA.

Most locations will drop just below freezing overnight so areas of
ice may be an issue for the morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will slowly increase its influence through Friday
as it ridges into Ohio from the Plains. Unfortunately this will
continue to pump cooler air across Lake Erie with some lake effect
snow continuing into Friday night. There is a trough that will
move across the Central Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday
so some enhancement to the lake effect is possible. At this point
we are not thinking a headline will be needed but 1 to 3 inches of
snow will be possible each 12 hour period across the snowbelt. A
few locally higher amounts around 4 inches may occur across inland
NE PA.

After highs in the lower to middle 30s tomorrow the remainder of
the short term period will see highs in the 20s. Lows Wednesday
and Thursday nights will be in the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak upper level ridging and associated area of high pressure will
build east across the entire eastern half of the United States
Saturday and Saturday night.  The high will then move east of the
area while low pressure is expected to slide northeast across James
Bay forcing a cold front across our area.  An upper level positive
vorticity maximum is progged to move across the Ohio Valley Sunday
and this feature will cause a swath of light snow across mainly the
southern half of the forecast area.  Will continue with the mention
of at least a slight chance of snow across the north or Sunday.

As flow becomes more zonal across the area, another area of high
pressure will build northeast out of the Gulf Coast states into the
Ohio Valley and eastern half of the country by Sunday night.  A warm
front will lift north across the local area Tuesday into Tuesday
night.  The front will bring another chance for some precipitation
and it appears it will be in the form of rain. Fairly good warm air
advection will take place across the area by Tuesday between the
high pressure to the east and the low pressure to the west.

Temperatures through period appear they will be moderating as the
overall pattern begins to change.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Marginal lake effect conditions should only allow for sct light snow
showers around the snowbelt thru wed night. Guidance indicates mixed
mvfr/vfr cigs should settle into mvfr cigs with patchy ifr in the
east by the end of the night then cigs improve some with daytime
heating by wed afternoon. WSW winds gusting 20 to 25 knots in the
snowbelt will gradually diminish rest of the night.

OUTLOOK...Areas on non vfr in lake effect shsn will continue around
the snowbelt into fri night. Non-VFR conditions possible Sunday
mainly across the south.

&&

.MARINE...
Figure on small craft advisory lasting through the rest of the week
as westerly flow of 15 to 25 knots persists.  Winds will finally
diminish by Saturday and Sunday and become more southerly.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Lombardy
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
