National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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204
FXUS63 KEAX 302321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 247 PM CST MON JAN 30 2017

Temperatures have been able to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s
for most of the area and should increase a couple more degrees
before falling. This is thanks to the clear skies and
southwesterly winds. The winds will shift back to the northwest
this evening though as a cold front, associated with the low over
MN, moves through the area. This frontal passage will be weak and
dry.

The upper level ridge over the western half of the US and the
surface high entering the area behind the cold front will dominate
our weather for the next few days. This will result in dry
conditions and decreasing temperatures. Temperatures will decrease
about 10 degrees per day. By Thursday, highs will be in the upper
20s to mid 30s with lows in the upper teens to low 20s. Thursday
evening the upper level ridge will begin to break down and a
shortwave trough will eject from the Rockies. Most of the energy
should stay in NE/IA but there is a slight chance areas along the
MO/IA border could see light snow Friday morning. No accumulation is
expected though.

The big story for this forecast period is the wintry precipitation
from a system moving into the area over the weekend. On Saturday
morning, a larger shortwave trough will eject out of the southern
Rockies and a leeside surface low will develop in TX. This system
will move to the northeast, impacting our forecast area along the
way. The ECMWF and Canadian bring precipitation into the western
portion of the forecast area by late morning Saturday, while the GFS
holds off until the afternoon hours. The ECMWF and Canadian also
move the precipitation out quicker than the GFS. While there is
still inconsistency among models, signs continue to point to the
entire area seeing accumulating precipitation Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning with the most QPF falling in southern MO.
Highs on Saturday are in the mid to upper 30s, therefore, there
will be some transitions between precipitation types. A rain/snow
mix looks most likely right now. As far as accumulation totals
are concerned, it is still too early to pinpoint.

We will have a short break from precipitation before another quick
wave moves through the area Monday afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST MON JAN 30 2017

VFR conditions are expected with only high level clouds and
westerly to west-northwesterly winds. 30 to 35 mph winds about
1000 ft above the surface presents a marginal risk for low level
wind shear. If surface winds completely decouple, may need to at
it to the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...CDB
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
