National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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FXUS62 KFFC 312322
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
622 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017



.UPDATE...
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Expecting a quiet short term with mainly zonal flow aloft. A
frontal boundary will drift into the TN Valley and far north
GA late afternoon Wednesday and Wednesday night as a strong
surface high builds into the central states. Models not showing
much qpf with this front so have kept the pops low chance or
slight chance for the areas north of Atlanta to Athens Wednesday
night. No thunder indicated at this time.

Max temperatures will be warm across the area...however parts of
north GA may be a bit cooler with clouds and a few showers.
Took a couple of degrees off the lows for tonight for most sites
given dry air and mostly clear skies.

41

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Did not make too many changes to the extended forecast trends with
this model cycle. Medium-range models remain in fairly good agreement
through the period, especially with respect to the larger-scale
features. Upper flow remains fairly flat and fast through early next
week which leads to some timing and strength differences between the
models, but those differences are not as big as they could be. Still
looks like scattered showers into at least north Georgia centered
around Thursday as the weak/diffuse front sags into the region with
better chances (especially across the north) Sunday. Blended model
surface temperatures still borderline for some mixed precipitation
potential in the overnight periods across the higher elevations of
the far north, but confidence is not high for any significant
impacts at this time. Please see the previous Long Term Forecast
Discussion below.

20

Previous LONG TERM Forecast Discussion /Wednesday Night through
Monday/...

Low amplitude troughing with zonal flow aloft will continue through
the remainder of the week. At the surface, high pressure to the
southeast will erode with a weak front approaching from the north by
Thursday evening. This front will take a bit to move through the
area, likely becoming stalled through Friday.  With weak impulses
traversing the boundary, anticipate some light precipitation
Thursday evening through Friday night. The exact location of the
stalled boundary will ultimately dictate what areas see more shower
activity. Given a lack of upper level support, expect low
precipitation totals through this period. High pressure moving in
from the northwest will eventually nudge this boundary south of the
area Saturday. The surface high will shift northeast of the area by
Sunday, becoming dammed against the higher terrain across north/east
Georgia. Meanwhile precipitation will approach as the next system
moves in from the west. Given the cooler temps and drier air locked
within the wedge, there may be mixed precipitation (likely
rain/snow) Sunday morning across this area, more likely amongst the
higher terrain. With a bit more upper level support, anticipate
more moisture associated with this system as it crosses the region
Sunday. High pressure quickly builds into the area Monday.

As the front slowly moves south of the area through the end of the
work-week, temperatures will be a bit tricky to forecast...they are
at the mercy of the frontal placement.  Current thinking-
temperatures will be just above climo Thursday, mid 50s in the north
to around 70 across central GA. By Friday, the front will be
situated nearby along with clouds and precipitation across a portion
of the area, meaning temperatures will be around climo across north
Georgia, upper 40s across the higher elevations to the mid 50s
within metro ATL. Further south, under continued return flow,
anticipate warmer temperatures, still hovering around 70. Saturday,
temperatures will be around climo across the area. By Monday,
anticipate temperatures to rebound into the upper 50s/60s.

26


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast. Clear or FEW250
tonight. Expect FEW-SCT025 with initial lifting...becoming more
of a cu field by 18Z. Skies should go broken Wednesday evening
around 5000 ft. Winds will diminish early this evening with some
places going calm. Westerly winds will become gusty again late
Wednesday morning and afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on all elements

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          45  69  48  65 /   0   0   5  20
Atlanta         47  67  49  62 /   0   0  10  20
Blairsville     39  60  42  55 /   0  10  20  20
Cartersville    44  66  46  59 /   0   5  20  20
Columbus        46  70  49  68 /   0   0   0  20
Gainesville     46  65  47  62 /   0   5  10  20
Macon           45  71  48  69 /   0   0   0  20
Rome            43  66  45  58 /   0   5  20  20
Peachtree City  42  68  47  63 /   0   0   5  20
Vidalia         48  72  51  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
