National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 010554
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1254 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance aloft may bring light precipitation tonight
into Wednesday. High pressure and a dry airmass are forecast to
build in for Thursday through Saturday. More precipitation is
expected Sunday as moisture increases in the southerly flow
ahead of low pressure traveling across southern Canada.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Radar continues to show a band of echoes along and south of the
Ohio River. Thus far have only seen the Maysville mesonet site
record any precipitation. Latest HRRR/RAP runs are in good
agreement that this band will lift/redevelop a bit further north
before daybreak. In addition, it will strengthen some, so there
will be a better chance of measurable precipitation. Have raised
PoPs along a Hamilton-Wilmington-Chillicothe corridor where they
could see one or two hundredths. Precipitation type is a bit of
a question. If boundary layer cools a couple of more degrees as
forecast, then there will be some snow flakes, otherwise rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Disturbance and light precip will be moving east Wednesday
morning. An extensive area of high pressure and a dry airmass
following on the persistent westerly flow aloft will provide dry
weather late Wednesday through Thursday. Clouds should show a
decreasing trend at least in opacity, with partial sunshine
expected Thursday.

High temperatures are forecast to reach about 40 Wednesday.
Cold advection in the circulation around the high will bring
readings down below normal for Thursday, when highs around 30
are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure with northerly flow will keep a dry yet cool period at
the end of the week into the weekend. Return flow and generally
clear skies on Saturday will permit temperature rebounds into the
30s, and then overnight readings will warm after an evening minimum
temperature. This is ahead of the next cold frontal passage on
Sunday.

Sunday morning may see some snow early on then mix with rain and
freezing rain before changing to all rain by noon. The precipitation
shield will be concentrated in the southern CWA and end from west to
east during the morning.

Southerly flow will reinstate itself behind this frontal passage and
temperatures will rise for the rest of the forecast. The next threat
for rain occurs on Monday and also lingers for the remainder of the
forecast with a generally moist and warm flow over the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Precipitation falling out of a mid deck into a drier airmass
across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky will eventually
moisten lower levels and cause a ceiling to develop between 4000
and 6000 ft. Light precipitation may reach the ground near
KILN, and if it does it should not impact visibility.

Further north, it appears that MVFR ceilings may develop across
northern Ohio and eventually spread into the Columbus area
after 12Z but not quite make it to KDAY. Expect any lower
ceilings to lift to VFR around 18Z.

Lower clouds will start to move off late in the day with the mid
deck starting to clear towards the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
