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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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FXUS63 KJKL 010340
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1040 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

Current conditions across eastern Kentucky feature cloud cover
moving into the area this evening. As well, the regional mosaic is
showing some decent returns moving through northern Kentucky.
Despite the dry air in place and 8 thousand foot ceilings, decided
best to match up with neighbors and put some sprinkles mainly in
the north through the rest of tonight and even into tomorrow as
dew point depressions will be on the decrease through the night.
Besides this, that was really the only changes to the forecast. A
new ZFP has been issued with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 715 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

Current conditions across the area feature the passage of a weak
cold front tracking across the area. In fact, still some dry air
is in place across the region with 20 degree dew point
depressions in place in many areas. Have updated the forecast to
adjust for this and input the latest observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

The latest surface map features weakening low pressure across the
eastern Great Lakes, with a strung out cold front aligned from
West Virginia to Kentucky. Broad low pressure is also residing
near the lee-side of the Rockies, with high pressure nosing in
across the Continental Divide. Aloft, fast flow remains across the
northern CONUS, maintaining the broad cyclonic flow around a
Hudson Bay upper level low.

Mild temperatures have been on tap across eastern Kentucky despite
an overall mostly cloudy day. Current readings range from the low
50s in the north to near 60 in the south, with breezy west
southwest to west winds continuing across the area.

An upper level jet stream to our north will help initiate some
light precipitation. The models have been suggesting some of this
brushing our area tonight; however, given the dry low levels, and
weaker forcing across our area, will only mention a few sprinkles
in the north. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 30s,
although a few lower 30s may be achievable in deeper valleys to
the south, where the high clouds may be a bit thinner.

The focus will then shift to our south on Wednesday, as a weak
inverted trough develops across the Tennessee Valley. Mostly
cloudy skies will reign, with highs ranging from the mid 40s
north, to the mid 50s in the far south. The models continue to
play up some precipitation developing along the inverted trough,
at least skirting our southeast by late Wednesday into Wednesday
night. As such, will maintain some slight chance pops. High
pressure will then build in from the northwest later Wednesday
night, with lows by Thursday morning, ranging from the mid 20s
north of I-64, to the lower 30s for valleys bordering Tennessee
and Virginia.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

The focus of the extended period remains the Saturday night and
Sunday time frame. A strong trough of low pressure aloft is still
forecast to move across the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee
Valley regions this weekend. A shortwave embedded in the base of
the trough will be our primary weather maker this weekend. The
issues with this short wave remains how far south it will track
and, therefore, how far south the cold air associated with it is
able to penetrate into eastern Kentucky. The further south the
track the more cold we would see and therefore more snow. The
further north the track, the further north the bulk of the cold
air will remain. At this time, the thinking is that the short wave
will take a more northerly track. This keep the bulk of
accumulating snow along and north of the Mountain Parkway,
although it does appear that most locations across eastern
Kentucky could see at least a dusting of snow Saturday night into
Sunday morning. The snow is forecast to fall Saturday night,
before slowly transitioning to a rain snow mix early Saturday
morning in our southwestern counties. As the shortwave moves out
of the area, the rain/snow line will migrate northward through out
the morning, with the last snow expected to move out of the area
by 16 or 17Z on Sunday. Numerous light to moderate rain showers
will gradually spread across the area through day as well, as the
snow retreats northward, which would quickly act to melt away
whatever snow that falls beforehand.

The bulk of the rain should then exit the area by 23Z, with
isolated to scattered showers lingering across the area Sunday
night. The area should be mostly dry by early Monday morning. A
second weather system is being forecast to move in from the
southwest on Monday, but the models are not yet in the bet of
agreement regarding the timing and exact track of this second
system, so only slight chance to chance PoPs are being used at
this time. This second system would bring mostly rain to eastern
Kentucky, at least based on the current model data, Monday and
Monday night.

Temperatures in the extended are expected to be generally above
normal, especially during the day time periods, with a big warm up
possible to begin the upcoming work week. Day times highs from
Thursday through Saturday should be in the 30s and 40s, with highs
on Sunday perhaps reaching the upper 40s. Mondays highs could be
in the 50s everywhere if the model data holds true. Nightly lows
will vary greatly from the upper teens to lower 20s Friday night
to the upper 20s and lower 30s Saturday night to the lower 40s
Monday night across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017

Most of the gusty west and southwest winds are beginning to
decrease across the area. With high pressure moving into the area,
winds will be become light overnight and into tomorrow. An
approaching disturbance tomorrow will bring a chance of a few
showers to the north but eastern Kentucky will remain entirely too
dry for anything more than a few sprinkles. Expect VFR conditions
through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
