National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 010520
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1220 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

Mild and breezy conditions in place this afternoon as a Clipper low
scoots across the Great Lakes. Active upper jet has generated plenty
of mid/high clouds, which are helping to hold temps and therefore
wind speeds in check. Expect the winds to further die down as the
gradient relaxed behind the departing low.

Seeing some radar returns near the Iowa/Missouri border, and hi-res
models are showing light QPF later tonight roughly along/north of
the I-64 corridor. However, with a lot of dry air in place, expect
mostly a lot of virga as this feature moves through. Will still
carry the slightest of slight chance POPs, with mention of sprinkles
or flurries which are likely to better capture the sensible weather.
Even if snow does reach the ground tonight/Wed morning, temps will
be just above freezing so not expecting any impacts.

Mild and dry weather continues on Wednesday, but a weak cold front
pushing south of the region will knock Wednesday night mins back in
line with climo.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

Thursday - Saturday...

Quiet weather is expected to continue into the weekend under dry NW
flow aloft. Strong Canadian surface high builds out of the Prairies
and down the Northern Plains, with a 1034mb high center settling
over the Ohio Valley on Sat morning. Fri night will be the coldest
night, but with no appreciable snow cover and the ridge just far
enough north, expect upper teens to lower 20s, with lower/mid teens
in some traditional cold spots. Otherwise we`ll be near climo
through the period given the progressive pattern and a decent
amount of cloud cover.

Saturday Night - Sunday...

After shortwave ridging on Saturday a fast-moving southern stream
shortwave trof will scoot eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Widespread precip is expected mainly
from 06-18Z on Sunday, but the big question mark is the precip type
at onset. We are already walking the ragged edge of mixed precip,
especially from the I-64 corridor northward. Latest model runs
continue to trend north, but we are still starting off with
borderline temps and will carry rain/snow mix, turning over to all
rain Sun morning as temps rise. Can`t even rule out freezing rain or
sleet at this point, but not yet mentioning that for the sake of
simplicity.

Sunday Night - Tuesday...

A brief respite from the precip Sun night into Mon, before another
southern stream system brings another round of overrunning precip.
This will be all rain, with temps trending toward the unseasonably
mild.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Feb 01 2017

Weak shortwave currently clipping northern portions of the CWA this
evening and bringing very light showers and sprinkles to northern
Kentucky and southern Indiana. Impacts to aviation should be
minimal, though, as cigs/vis should remain in VFR conditions. The
shortwave will exit the region tomorrow afternoon, but high to mid
level clouds will stick around for the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation...DM
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
