National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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FXUS64 KMEG 010557
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1157 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06Z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 942 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/

UPDATE...
9 PM CST surface map showed a pressure trof roughly parallel to
and just north of the I-40 corridor. Theta-e gradient will increase
along this boundary toward morning, as cold advection strengthens
to the north and modified tropical air approaches and overrides
the boundary from the south. Low clouds and brief periods of fog
will be possible near front, which will finally push south of
I-40 during the afternoon.

A few adjustments were made to overnight temps, mainly to lower
temps north of I-40.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Warm and dry conditions exist across the Mid-South this afternoon.
Temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the
CWA with southwest winds generally between 5-10 mph. Relative
humidity has dropped to as low as 20% in some areas. Despite the
above normal precipitation this month, we`ve still received
reports of at least 2 small wildfires in north Mississippi.

A quasistationary front is draped from southern MO across central
KY. This boundary is forecast to dip south overnight, moving very
slowly toward I-40 by sunrise tomorrow. A bit of drizzle is
possible in the vicinity and just north of this boundary during
the morning hours. By the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers
are expected, mainly along and south of I-40. These showers will
likely remain on the light side and coverage shouldn`t be
significant. Thus, PoPs are only in the 20-30% range.

The cold front is expected to stall just south of the CWA late
tomorrow, providing a focus for additional light rain showers
through the remainder of the work week. Most of this activity will
remain over north MS, but low PoPs were carried as far north as
the I-40 corridor. Temperatures will be rather cool, with
afternoon highs generally in the 40s. Minimum temperatures are
forecast to remain just warm enough to keep this precipitation all
rain.

Precipitation is expected taper off Friday night and early
Saturday, but quasi-zonal flow aloft will bring a fast-moving
shortwave trough across the Plains Saturday afternoon. Moisture
will return as warm advection ensues, driving the warm front back
to the north. Showers will be possible by Saturday afternoon,
mainly west of the Mississippi River. However, rain chances really
ramp up Saturday night into Sunday morning as the main wave
traverses the area. A bit of thunder isn`t out of the question,
but instability doesn`t look very impressive at this time.

The models are hinting at a brief dry period from Sunday
afternoon through Monday evening, but the next system looks to
bring another chance for showers to the CWA by Monday morning. A
more amplified trough is progged to affect the area on Tuesday.
The ECMWF depicts a deeper trough with a neutral to negative tilt.
It is also farther south with the wave, bringing the bulk of the
dynamics across the region. The GFS is a little less aggressive
with the Canadian fitting nicely between the two solutions. A
quick glance at the CIPS analog for severe weather shows a low
probability for strong storms. However, this is based on the GEFS
so we`ll continue to monitor the trends going forward.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Set

VFR conditions will prevail through about 13Z. A stationary
boundary is currently located just north of MEM and over MKL. This
front is expected to sag south and stall out near MEM and MKL.
This may create IFR and possibly LIFR CIGS over KTUP, KMKL, and
KMEM. Drizzle may also develop at KMEM and KTUP reducing VSBYS in
addition to IFR ceilings. Conditions are expected to improve to
MVFR and eventually VFR return as the front drops south.

Winds will mainly be light and variable through the period due to
the proximity of the front.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
