National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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FXUS64 KOHX 010540
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1140 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Interesting forecast over the next week as we head into February
with above average temperatures, see some shots at colder temps,
and even some thunderstorms/winter weather possible at the end of
the long term. So far today temperatures have warmed up quite a
bit above guidance, and dewpoints have dried out at the surface as
well. The surface high is nearby, so that may be helping mix down
some drier air to the surface. Tonight looks to be quiet as well,
with above average low temperatures, but cooler weather will
move in with the arrival of the cold front/stationary boundary
which will impact the mid state over the next few days.

As the broad upper trough slowly moves eastward in southern
Canada, cold air will shift southward over the eastern CONUS. The
boundary looks to stall out over the TN valley region and will
provide enough lift to see showers starting Wednesday afternoon
through Friday. Most of the precip chances will be confined to the
southern half, and may see some mixed precipitation overnight
Thursday into Friday as the cold air gives one last surge
southward.

Saturday looks to be mostly dry, but a shortwave trough will move
into the area from the Plains late Saturday and into the day
Sunday. Models have been trending warmer with this event, and
initially had chances for mixed precip before the trough axis
crossed the mid state. Morning model runs have been the warmest
yet, and keep the mid state just a bit too warm to see mixed
precip, so took out mention of all precip types besides rain. It
is possible that models could start a cooling trend, and right now
if there was to be mixed precip chances, it looks like the
northeast part of the area as well as near the KY border have the
best shot at seeing some frozen precip Saturday night before
midnight, or even into the early morning hours Sunday. By 06Z
Sunday, model consensus has 850mb temps around 4C-7C, and surface
wet bulb temps above 35F, so for now it looks like we will see
mostly rain Saturday night.

Rain chances will increase Sunday morning, and currently the best
chances for rain will be after midnight into the early morning
hours Sunday for the northwest half of the area, and continuing
for the entire area Sunday morning before noon. Rain chances
should decrease from west to east Sunday afternoon, however slight
chances for precip remain between models into the early morning on
Monday.

Another shortwave will continue rain chances later on Monday and
into the day Tuesday. WAA will continue, so temps will warm up
further and be into the mid 60s by Tuesday afternoon. The WAA will
strengthen due to a much more potent trough headed for the region
mid week. Model timing isnt the greatest currently, however models
do agree on the strength of the trough and associated cold front.
The strongest trough is shown on the ECMWF solution, bringing the
cold front through the area Wednesday morning, with strong
thunderstorms possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
and no precip behind the front when the very cold air arrives.
Currently, the ECMWF has 850mb temps around 10C-12C at 06Z
Wednesday, and -6C by 06Z Thursday, so there will be a large swing
in daily temperatures. The GFS has the front coming through 12
hours later, with similar temperature swings as well as some
thunderstorms possible late Wednesday, and winter precip possible
into the morning Thursday. This system is still over a week out,
and models are not lining up yet, so it will be interesting to
see how models evolve for this event over the next week or so.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Clouds will work into the area with MVFR cigs expected at BNA and
CSV. CSV will likely have period of IFR cigs tomorrow afternoon
along with a couple of light showers. A shower cannot be
completely ruled out at BNA but chances do not warrant a mention
in the taf at this time. Models keep cigs VFR at CKV for the taf
period and shower chances stay south of the terminal. Winds at
CKV and BNA will be out of the north around 5 kts. Winds at CSV
will eventually veer to the north during the evening hours.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Reagan
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
