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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 312112
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
712 AM ChST Wed Feb 1 2017

.Synopsis...
Andersen Air Force Base Doppler weather radar shows isolated showers
moving through the Marianas waters. The VAD wind profile reveals
northeast winds of 13 to 17 knots just off the surface which increase
to between 23 and 30 knots through the lowest 8 thousand feet of the
air.

&&

.Discussion...
Winds are a little higher today, largely as expected. We`re looking
for winds and seas to be just below small craft advisory criteria
today, although gusts will have to be watched. The showers previously
expected are sliding south of Guam waters and will have only
peripheral effects on the forecast zones. After today, winds and
waves will decrease a little leaving us in a more standard dry season
trade-wind regime.

In the later periods, the winds get a bit squirrely, likely turning
toward the southeast and perhaps even the southwest. Then they could
briefly turn northwest before a shear line blows through and turns
them northeast again. This could be like the event last month, so it
is definitely possible. If we get through today with no advisories,
then none are foreseen at least the next few days.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A disturbance well southwest of Pohnpei is slowly moving west and
causing showers to move away from the Pohnpei and Kosrae areas.
Moderate trades and fairly dry weather is expected at all three
locations the next several days. Trade-wind convergence will
redevelop in the region, mainly along 5N, bringing scattered showers
to Kosrae late in the weekend.

High surf advisory remains in effect at Kosrae due to residual large
trade-wind swell. Surf is expected to fall below hazardous levels
late week or over the weekend.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A broad circulation near 3N142E is the main feature of interest.
Showers and thunderstorms extend over a wide area from near Koror and
Yap eastward to Chuuk State. Convection will decrease in the Chuuk
area later on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase at
Yap and Koror this afternoon and overnight, continuing through at
least Thursday night. Models maintain a WNW motion, although just
a little farther south of prior runs. However, all models keep the
circulation weak. Once west of Koror, models move the circulation
along a more northerly track, inducing a southeast flow over both
Yap and Koror for the weekend.

High surf advisory remains in effect at Yap and Koror due to
increased northeast swell. In addition, winds have increased at Yap
to levels hazardous to small craft. Winds will stay elevated until
the disturbance passes west.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Stanko/W. Aydlett
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
