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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 010532
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1232 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017

.AVIATION (06z TAFs)...
VFR conditions to prevail through much of the period.
Patchy fog reduce vsbys at more fog-prone terminals. Light
and variable winds will become southeasterly during the late
morning, eventually shifting to the south and southwest as
the seabreeze develops. Winds will become variable again by
00z Thurs.

84/Austin

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 709 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017/

UPDATE...
00z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show a continued benign
weather pattern for the Florida peninsula. Main northern
stream flow is removed well to our north...leaving a
generally zonal and dry mid/upper level flow across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and FL peninsula.

The 01/00Z KTBW sounding profile continues to also sample a
very dry atmospheric column through the extent of the trop.
With this profile...skies will remain mostly clear through
the overnight...with just some passing thin cirrus from time
to time over the southern counties.

Although the ridge axis is over the region and winds...the
low level column has moderated a bit over the past 12-18
hours...and this will help keeps temps a bit warmer than
Monday night. Therefore...although it will be seasonable
cool tonight, we are not anticipating any potential for
frost, even across the interior northern counties. Beyond
tonight...temperatures will only continue to moderate slowly
each day.

Will likely see some patchy fog develop after 07-09Z
overnight...mainly to the north of the I-4 corridor. Most
statistical and deterministic guidance members agree on
this northern bias to fog potential. Generally
speaking...dense fog is not expected for most spots,
however, if any dense fog is going to develop, the most
likely locations will be Citrus/Levy counties. Will monitor
these zones closely late night.

Beyond minor edits, see little opportunity at this time to
improve the inherited forecast of dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures through the middle of week.

Have a great Tuesday evening everyone!

AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail through the rest of the evening
across west-central and southwest Florida, under mostly
clear skies and light winds. Patchy and shallow MVFR fog is
possible after 09Z...mainly for KLAL and KPGD, however, most
of the fog potential tonight will remain to the north of the
I-4 corridor. Any patchy fog is gone by 14Z Wednesday,
followed by prevailing VFR conditions and winds under 8
knots through the duration of the Wednesday daylight hours.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  72  56  75  58 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  77  57  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  75  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  72  53  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  74  44  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  71  58  74  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MCMICHAEL/OGLESBY
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
