National Weather Service Text Product Display

Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 020031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Regions 2630 (N16E25) and 2631
(S04W52) were spotless plage. Region 2629 (N15W51, Hax/alpha) underwent
slight decay, while Region 2632 (N14W22, Dao/beta) exhibited a period of
rapid growth.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares for the forecast period (02 - 04 Feb).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at low levels early in the
period, and increased to high levels late in the period due to ongoing
CH HSS influences. A peak flux of 15,275 pfu at 2 MeV was observed at
01/1615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high
levels the next three days (02 - 04 Feb). The 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment remained enhanced while under the continued
influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds ranged
between 546 km/s and 773 km/s for the period, and total field strength
varied between 4 and 8 nT. Bz was mostly variable with a maximum
southward deviation of -7 nT. Phi angle was negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated for the next three
days (02 Feb - 04 Feb) due to lingering CH HSS effects.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
G1-Minor storm levels were reached due to CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
Primarily unsettled to active conditions are expected, with an early
period of G1 (Minor) storming, on day one (02 Feb) due to ongoing CH HSS
effects. Day two (03 Feb) is expected to be primarily unsettled with
isolated active periods as CH HSS influences begin to wane. By day three
(04 Feb) mostly quiet to unsettled conditions, with an isolated active
period, are expected as the CH HSS begins rotating beyond a geoeffective
position and solar wind parameters weaken further.
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
