Science Plan: Northern Gulf of Mexico: USGS Science Contributions to a Resilient Coast 2006-2011

Key Message:

In the wake of the recent 2005 devastating hurricane season, the challenge for the U.S. Geological Survey is to develop and implement a strategy to provide the science base needed by managers and policy-makers that is consistent across the range of spatial scales, persistent across the range of temporal scales, and that characterizes Gulf Coast variability.  The complexity of the Gulf Coast requires a “system-science” approach aimed at understanding the response of linked elements of coastal systems to multiple stressors and influences. An effective approach must develop information and understanding that addresses the regional scope of coastal change.

The answers to the following research questions will provide the information needed to make informed decisions concerning restoration and hazard risk reduction and guide our long-term science plans. 

• What are the impacts on the Gulf Coast from extreme storms?  What is the current vulnerability of the northern Gulf Coast?
• What are the processes, both natural and anthropogenic, that affect coastal vulnerability?
• How will coastal rebuilding and restoration plans affect coastal resiliency?
• How can we use this information to help sustain economic and natural resources and mitigate the effects from future storms?

The increased knowledge that will result from the answers will allow restoration and hazard mitigation activities to be evaluated with a more complete understanding of their probable effects on coastal ecosystems and communities and a full assessment of coastal vulnerability to natural and human driven change.

Background:

The societal and natural pressures on the northern Gulf of Mexico are arguably as complex as anywhere in the world.  The northern GOM contains some of the world’s most diverse and productive ecosystems including a large percentage of the Nation’s estuaries, barrier islands, and salt and fresh marshes.  These resources are increasingly threatened not only by population and development pressures but by the impacts of severe storms such as the series of hurricanes that have visited the northern Gulf in 2004 and 2005.  Natural resources are also under intense pressure from the oil and gas markets, navigation and flood control projects, and large scale land use associated with industrial, agricultural and municipal development. 

The Mississippi River deltaic plain is experiencing extreme rates of coastal erosion, subsidence and land loss. Rising sea level is exacerbating the substantial effects of coastal storms and hurricanes.  The growing pressures of coastal development are responsible for many of the current stresses to coastal resources, which include water quality and sediment pollution, increased flooding, loss of barrier islands and wetlands, and declining fisheries.  The Gulf accounts for over 95% of the U.S’s outer continental shelf oil and gas production, and the region processes over 67% of the Nation’s oil imports.  The impact of a catastrophic storm such as Hurricane Katrina may have long lasting effects on the Nation’s economy, as exemplified by the immediate and sustained rise in gasoline prices.  Invasive and nuisance species, a serious threat to native biota in many Gulf coast ecosystems, are potentially transported over large geographical distances by storms. 

During normal summers, about 25% of the Gulf Coast’s shell-fishing areas are closed due to pollution; increased nutrient loading of the Mississippi River results in an hypoxic zone covering ~7,000 square miles, and chronic algal blooms occur in many of the region’s inshore waters.  Over 80% of the Nation’s coastal wetland losses have occurred in the Gulf Coast region, primarily in Louisiana, since 1940, and predictions of future population growth, coupled with accelerated sea level rise, suggest increasing pressure on Gulf Coast communities and environments.  Nevertheless, the Gulf Coast remains important to the Nation in terms of both renewable and non-renewable resources.  Gulf Coast ecosystems support most of the Nation’s wintering waterfowl and account for about half of the fisheries production in the lower 48 states.

Why the Northern Gulf of Mexico?

In the summer of 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita impacted the Gulf of Mexico coast from Mobile Bay, Alabama, to east Texas, physically, ecologically, socially, and economically. The effects of these storms are still not fully known. Initial USGS observations and past studies of hurricanes in the region suggest that changes will be widespread, persistent, and likely to substantially increase the vulnerability of the region to future storm events.  The physical and ecological structure may be altered in ways that pose significant risks to public, environmental, and economic health. It is likely that these will have effects of national importance.

Because of its unique charter to provide objective science to the government at all levels, the USGS is already becoming heavily involved in a number of initiatives, some ongoing, others being initiated now, where the outcomes will be important to the northern Gulf Coast.  The following paragraphs highlight our connection and rationale for a strong presence in the region.