Seasonal forecasting has great scope for use in marine
applications, particularly those with a management focus. Seasonal
forecasts from dynamical ocean-atmosphere models of high risk
conditions in marine ecosystems can be very useful tools for
managers, allowing for proactive management responses. The
Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal forecast model POAMA
currently produces operational real-time global forecasts of sea
surface temperatures, with tailored outlooks produced for coral
reef, aquaculture and wild fisheries management in Australian
waters.
Operational realtime seasonal forecasts for coral bleaching risk
on the Great Barrier Reef predict warm conditions that may lead to
coral bleaching several months in advance, and play an important
role in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority's Early Warning
System. Early warnings of potential bleaching risk can assist reef
managers to prepare for the likelihood of an event, focusing
resources, briefing stakeholders and increasing awareness of
bleaching onset. In marine farming and fishing operations in
Australia, seasonal forecasting is being used to reduce uncertainty
and manage business risks. Further, habitat distribution forecasts
can be generated by combining these environmental forecasts with
biological habitat preference data, providing industry with species-
specific information. POAMA will be upgraded to the new higher
resolution ACCESS-S seasonal prediction system in 2017, in
collaboration with the UK Met Office.
Dynamical forecasts potentially offer improved performance
relative to statistical forecasts, particularly given baseline
shifts in the environment due to climate change. Seasonal forecasts
are most useful when management options are available for
implementation in response to the forecasts. Improved management of
marine resources, with the assistance of such forecast tools, is
likely to enhance future planning, industry resilience and adaptive
capacity under climate change.
About the Speaker: Dr. Claire Spillman holds a PhD in
Environmental Engineering and joint BEng/BSc degrees in
Environmental Engineering (Hons) and Chemistry from the University
of Western Australia. Her postgraduate work investigated impacts of
estuarine circulation and oceanic inputs on aquaculture production
using high resolution hydrodynamic-ecological modelling.
Dr. Spillman is a senior research scientist at the Bureau of
Meteorology, Australia. Her current research is primarily focused on
dynamical seasonal forecasting in marine applications, particularly
for coral reef and fisheries management. Applications include
predictions for Great Barrier Reef coral bleaching risk, Australian
commercial fisheries and aquaculture on multiweek to seasonal
timescales.
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